DTN Market Impact Weather

Hotter and Drier Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Continued Midwest rain in the next few days, and the formation of hot upper-level high pressure during the 10-day timeframe, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

VARIED MIDWEST FORECAST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a wide range of conditions in the Midwest during the next week to 10 days. The next two days feature continued showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain and flood threats in the western and central Midwest. The overall effect of the rain is favorable for developing corn and soybeans. The six- to 10-day timeframe, however, features upper-level high pressure forming in the south-central U.S., and bringing on a turn to hotter and drier conditions. This will dry out soils. This pattern does not appear to be stressful for pollinating corn, but will bear watching.

DRYNESS TO RETURN IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, a turn to hotter and drier conditions begins Tuesday and continues through the next 10 days. This hotter and drier trend will allow wheat harvest to resume. Showers and milder weather have been more favorable for developing corn and soybeans. However, developing upper-atmosphere high pressure during the next week to 10 days will bring on a return to hot and dry conditions. This hotter trend will deplete soil moisture and increase crop stress, especially for pollinating corn.

STILL DRY IN WEST TEXAS

In west Texas, the dry pattern is pattern is likely to continue during this week and next. Temperatures will be mostly above normal.

FAVORABLE IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Across the Northern Plains, favorable conditions remain in effect for developing corn, soybeans and spring wheat. This pattern is expected to continue during the next 10 days.

CONTINUED PRAIRIES SHOWER CHANCE

A variable temperature pattern and episodes of showers in the Canadian Prairies will favor developing crops. Rainfall appears to favor south and east locations during the balance of the week, but may develop a little further north after that.

SOUTH RUSSIA DRYNESS

In the Black Sea region, dryness and episodes of hot weather continue to stress corn and sunflower development in south and east Ukraine and South Russia. The center of the concern appears to be South Russia with frequent hot days and little rainfall, even when cold fronts move through the area. A more favorable weather pattern for crops is in effect in west and central Ukraine, Belarus and even Moldova at this time.

NORTHEAST CHINA SHOWERS

Northeast China continues with a variable temperature pattern and episodes of showers, generally favorable for developing crops.

MIXED CENTRAL CHINA PATTERN

In central China, moderate to heavy thunderstorms occurred in key growing areas of Shandong and Henan during the past 24 hours while hot and dry conditions shifted to the south. Showers settled south into the Yangtze River valley and weaken during the next two days. Meanwhile, a drier and hotter trend redevelops over the North China Plain and continues through Saturday. The next chance for scattered thunderstorms in the area looks to be Sunday and Monday. The early call on this activity is for a significant event.

SLOW INDIA MONSOON PROGRESS

The India monsoon is forecast to move further northward later this week and during the weekend. This northward progression would bring monsoon rain into the Ganges Plain. Monsoon progression is later than average; however, the monsoon front has reached into key growing areas of west-central and central India. Soybeans, sorghum, cotton and sugarcane have benefited from the rain development.

Bryce Anderson can be reach at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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