DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada and a trough over north-central and eastern Canada extending across Greenland. This is a warm/hot pattern for western and central Canada, mild/cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A weak ridge in the eastern pacific. A ridge over the southwest U.S. A trough over the northern Rockies. A trough over the Midwest and south-central U.S. A weak ridge over Florida and a weak trough in the western atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located over northwest Mexico and in the central atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days, fair-poor agreement days 8-10. We are leaning more towards the intermediate run of the U.S. model. The northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada and a trough over north-central and eastern Canada extending eastward into Greenland. This will be a variable temperature pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific and a low to moderate amplitude jet stream over the northern U.S. and southern Canada. To the south of this jet subtropical high pressure will build over the southern and eastern U.S. This could be a little less active rainfall pattern in the Midwest due to some northward shift in the jet due to more ridging in the south. However this is uncertain. We do not expect it to turn dry enough to impact crop conditions and in some areas drier weather would be welcome after heavy rains this week. Drier over the southern U.S. under ridging. Temperatures will be on the warm side throughout the central U.S.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal. The southern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, above normal days 6-10. Rainfall mostly below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...126 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...31 AT BOCA RESERVOIR NV AND HOHNHOLZ RANCH CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY...SIOUX FALLS SD 2.58 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement during the first day or two of the outlook period, fair agreement after that. I favor a little more of today's US model as it concerns the middle to late part of the period.

The 5 day forecast features a good deal of rain and thunderstorm activity for the central plains region, the Midwest and the Delta.

The 6-10 day period begins with the ridge building over the southern Rockies and the southwestern plains region. The trough responsible for the 5 day rainfall totals is shown weakening as it moves through the northeast US at that time. The next downstream trough is moving inland over the Pacific Northwest.

The US model features shows the trough mainly over the northwest US to the northern plains region during the outlook period. The ridge moves across the southern US and winds up in the east by next Saturday. This ridge covers much of the region from the Miss river valley through the eastern US and into the Atlantic. This is also picked up on the mean maps covering the 8 to 10 day period as the center of the ridge is shown in the Atlantic and but it extends west over the Midwest. The mean trough is over the northwest US with the jet stream cutting through the northeast plains and into southeast Canada. This is likely an above normal temperature pattern for most areas east of the Rockies with the possibly exception of the northern plains region where temperatures may be more variable. Rainfall is harder to call as the eastward placement of the ridge center leaves the door open for moisture coming north from the Gulf of Mexico. I would tend to support continued rain chances for the western Midwest region and I would also look for some increase in shower threats over the northern plains and possibly the southern Canadian Prairies in areas near the jet stream. Little is expected during this period through the central and southern plains region. The east and south Midwest and Delta should probably be drier but as indicated above with some inflow of Gulf Moisture this is a more uncertain forecast.

The European model places the ridge center further west, over the central and east Midwest, in the extended range and as a result has less overall rainfall in the west Midwest and north plains regions. I favor the US model at this time.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Rain and thunderstorms during the next 5-6 days will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops. Cooler temperatures early in this period slows development while warmer weather later is more favorable for growth. The tendency for drier, hotter weather in the Midwest in the extended range bears watching but as we have seen so far this season it has been difficult to main the ridge for any length of time in the Midwest region.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS/SORGHUM): Thunderstorms and more seasonal temperatures are expected in north and central areas during the next few days. This should favor summer crops while being somewhat unfavorable for maturing wheat and the wheat harvest. Local fields may see some impact from severe weather during this period. Drier, hotter weather continues to the south which favors the harvest of wheat while maintaining high stress levels on sorghum.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Favorable conditions for development of spring wheat, corn and soybeans throughout the northern plains at this time. Not much rain is being forecast in the North Dakota/North Minnesota area during the next 7 days. This should reduce soil moisture somewhat. Temperatures are not expected to be very warm, however.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): The drier weather pattern is likely to continue during this week and next. Temperatures mostly above normal.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN, SUNFLOWER): South and east Ukraine and south Russia will continue hot, highs 80s and 90s F, Friday. Scattered thundershowers will break this heat wave during the weekend period. Stress remains high on developing corn and sunflower in the area but should ease some during the weekend. The temperature pattern going forward is more variable in nature with some hot and some less hot days for the area. The rainfall pattern looks to average near to mostly below normal levels.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Warm temperatures and scattered showers will favor developing crops during the next 5 days, although some locations could use more rain to support continued favorable development. Cooler weather but not much rainfall through the middle of next week. Longer range it may be more active but this is highly uncertain.

NORTHEAST CHINA (CORN AND SOYBEANS): A warming trend during the weekend will be followed by more rain chances and cooler temperatures next week. A mostly favorable pattern for corn and soybean development.

NORTH CHINA PLAIN (CORN,SOYBEANS,GROUNDNUTS,COTTON): A few thunderstorms northwest but mostly dry elsewhere in the region yesterday. Highs 85 to 94F east and south, cooler northwest. The region should be mostly dry and warm to hot today and Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move northward into important growing areas of Henan and Shandong Sunday into Monday. The activity may favor the south and east part of the area. Following this rain chance another extended dry spell appears likely. Cooler at first, warm to hotter again later.

INDIAN MONSOON: There has been little movement to the leading edge of the Monsoon winds during the past 10 to 12 days. It remains either side of the line where it should be at about June 10th. Thunderstorms have, at times, reached northern Maharashtra and southern areas of Madhya Pradesh. The presentation on satellite pictures looks much improve from where it was a week ago. The models are forecasting an increase in shower activity in key central interior growing areas during the next week. This should include key growing areas of Maharahstra and Madhya Pradesh. It is not certain this would include the Gujarat cotton and groundnut areas, although it will be close.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Light rain or showers during the past 24 hours, except in southeast Iowa where heavier thundershowers were reported. Temperatures averaged below normal, mainly due to well below normal daytime highs.

East: Rain and thunderstorms, 0.50-1.50 inches and locally heavier, through north and central Illinois, northwest and central Indiana, west-central and southwest Ohio during the past 24 hours. Light rain or showers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: A little light rain or drizzle may linger early today, especially in eastern areas. Dry this afternoon. Dry early Saturday. Light to moderate showers develop over northwest areas late in the day or at night. Moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers develop over central and eastern Nebraska, southern South Dakota, western Iowa and northwest Missouri later Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures average well below normal today, below normal Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms Monday. Rain or showers and thundershowers favoring northern and eastern areas Tuesday. Additional light to locally moderate showers favoring central Iowa area Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

East: Light to moderate rain or showers with some heavier possible from northern and eastern Illinois eastward today into tonight. Mainly dry or with only a few light showers during the weekend period, possibly favoring southern areas. Temperatures average below to well below normal today, below normal Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Light to moderate showers develop in west and north Illinois and Wisconsin later Monday or Monday night. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with some heavier possible during Tuesday into Wednesday. The activity may favor central and north areas. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal during this period. Rainfall near to above normal west, near to below normal east.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Light showers through southern and eastern Montana during the past 24 hours. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Light showers favoring Montana and the western Dakotas today. Dry or with only a few light or very light showers during the weekend. Temperatures average near to a few degrees above normal during this period.

Light to locally moderate showers mainly in South Dakota Monday. Dry or with only a few light showers Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, near to above normal east, during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry yesterday. A few showers have moved into western Kansas, the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles during the night. Temperatures averaged near to below normal north, above normal south.

Forecast: Scattered thunderstorms in west and south Kansas, north and east Oklahoma later today or during tonight. These storms may include hail, high winds and possibly a few tornados. Thundershowers during Saturday will mainly occur in southeast areas. Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday or Sunday night covering north and central areas. Temperatures mostly below normal north, near to below normal central, above to well above normal south.

A few showers and thundershowers during Monday, favoring eastern and southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Mainly dry Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures average below normal north and above or well above normal south Monday. Hotter temperatures move northward Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal. Rainfall below normal.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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