DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Cattle Gains Offset Hog Market Losses

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN photo by Russ Quinn)

Cattle market gains are being offset by aggressive triple-digit pressure in the hog trade. The overall softness in outside markets through the morning has limited trade volume and keep prices shifting in a moderate to wide range. Corn prices are lower in light trade Tuesday. July corn futures are 2 cents lower. Stock markets are lower in light trade. The Dow Jones is 345 points lower while Nasdaq is down 64 points.


August live cattle futures are holding a $1 per cwt gain with increased overall support developing across the market despite early pressure seen in the market. All nearby live cattle trade seems to be focusing on the ability to bring additional solid commercial buying interest back to the table. There may be some additional support seen through the end of the day, although given weakness in outside markets, the gains in the cattle complex are gaining even more attention. Cash cattle markets are quiet with bids currently undeveloped for the week. A few asking prices are seen in the South at $115 live basis. There is increased support that additional movement may continue to develop across the complex, which may add some uncertainty to the complex over the near future. Active trade is likely to be pushed off until late in the week. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $1.26 lower (select) and down $0.46 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 75 total loads reported (30 loads of choice cuts, 25 loads of select cuts, 7 loads of trimmings, 12 loads of ground beef).


Moderate support is seen in feeder cattle and live cattle trade midday Tuesday. The most aggressive strength is seen in deferred contracts focusing on sharp pressure in outside markets and the grain complex specifically. This may add even more support to the entire complex as traders look for increased underlying support from the live cattle complex through the week. Nearby contracts are holding gains of 60 to 80 cents per cwt with limited activity seen through the entire complex.


Traders are quickly backing away from early week gains. The support seen Monday helped to push prices to two-month highs, but traders have quickly adjusted markets due to sharp outside market pressure. Nearby contracts are approaching $2 per cwt losses with concern that the general weakness in most commodity markets will not only affect futures traders, but could quickly move into cash markets. Trade volume has slowed, but the overall tone of the market remains weak. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the National Direct morning cash hog report. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant Report posted 197 loads selling with carcass values gaining $0.30 per cwt. Lean hog index for 6/15 is at $82.86 up 1.42 with a projected two-day index of $84.05, up 1.19.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com


Rick Kment