DTN Midday Grain Comments

All Grain Lower at Midday

David M Fiala
By  David Fiala , DTN Contributing Analyst
(DTN photo by Nick Scalise)

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are flat to slightly higher in quiet trade with the Dow unchanged. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 75 points higher. Energies are weaker with crude down 0.15 cents. Livestock trade is sharply lower. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $7.50.


Corn trade is 8 to 11 cents lower at midday with selling pressure returning with mixed weather forecasts and trade concerns leaning on the market. Forecasts remain in flux with heat and rain featuring for most with heat looking to intensify into the weekend with forecast disagreement after that, with heavy rain across much of Iowa overnight and this morning. Harvest should continue to expand in the double crop areas of Brazil. Ethanol margins are working sideways with cheaper corn and ethanol. Basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. The weekly export sales remain decent at 936,400 metric tons of old crop corn, and 234,200 metric tons of new. On the July chart we remain below the 10-day, at $3.80 which is now nearby resistance and then the 200-day at $3.82. Nearby support is the $3.66 3/4 fresh four-month low scored Monday.


Soybean trade is 5 to 9 cents lower at midday with light selling continuing after the washout yesterday with the ongoing trade concerns and pressure from corn and wheat. Meal was $3 to $6 lower and oil is 5 to 15 points lower. Meal is now $60 off the highs. Bean basis has remained steady, with trade likely to remain quiet in the near term as old crop exports remain slow. Weekly export sales were ok at 519,600 metric tons, 291,000 of new, 74,600 of old crop meal, 23,300 of new meal, and 7,800 of oil. On the July chart, trade is back below all the major moving averages with the 20-day at 9.98 the first level of resistance with support at the new low of $9.24.


Wheat trade is 6 to 15 cents lower with pressure continuing overnight after the poor finish yesterday with harvest pressure building as progress continues across the plains, along with mixed weather overseas. Warmer weather should allow early harvest to progress quickly with the lagging maturity catching up with the continued warm weather which tends to limit yields but early protein numbers remain average to strong with some better yields in eastern Kansas. Spring wheat should see better progress with warmer weather helping to catch up emergence along with more rain. Australia should see some improvement but overall remains mixed. The Black Sea remains on the dry side near term, with Russian spring wheat weather remaining mixed with improvement in the Ukraine. HRW basis has improved ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement and board weakness. Weekly export sales were around expectations at 302,300 metric tons. On the July Kansas City we are back below the 50-day moving average at 5.31. Support is the $5.19 100-day moving average, which we are testing this morning.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


David Fiala