DTN Market Impact Weather

Hot and Dry Concern

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Concern over developing heat and dryness in the central U.S., and continued dry conditions over central Brazil, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

MIDWEST HEAT AND DRYNESS CONCERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for very warm to hot and dry conditions in the central and southern Midwest through the holiday weekend. The northern portion of the region has a higher chance for precipitation. A developing high-pressure ridge over the south-central U.S. will be closely monitored for the potential of early-summer stress to crops in the region.

INTENSE SOUTHERN PLAINS HEAT

In the Southern Plains, hot weather will spread south to north during the weekend, increasing stress to reproductive and filling wheat and germinating and early developing spring-planted crops. Scattered thunderstorms in the northern portion of the region will offer very little benefit.

FAVORABLE NORTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

The Northern Plains region has generally favorable conditions for planting and developing spring wheat, corn and soybeans. Episodes of scattered showers help to ease dryness concerns.

VARIABLE DELTA AND SOUTHEAST RAIN

Heavy rains are likely to hit the southeast U.S. crop belt during the next week. This may also include a tropical system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. However, the heavy rain would occur even without tropical support. Rain is likely to be much lighter and more scattered in the Delta. Delta weather will also turn quite hot later in the seven- to 10-day period.

TEXAS COTTON HEAT

There is no significant chance for rain in the west Texas cotton region during the next 10 days. Temperatures will likely average well-above normal as upper-level high pressure in the area strengthens during this period.

DRYNESS WATCH IN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies have favorable weather for planting spring wheat and canola at this time. Dryness is becoming of increasing concern. Showers have been in the area of central and southeast locations during the past couple of days, helping to ease dryness concerns somewhat. Warm to hot weather and little rain through the weekend will likely deplete some of the moisture just added. Showers next week may favor south-central and east areas. Some improvement in conditions is possible in eastern areas, while central and a little of the west continues unfavorably drier.

BRAZIL STAYS DRY

Brazil crop areas will be mostly dry with a somewhat hotter trend in the area where most of the second-crop (safrinha) corn is grown during the next week. In the longer range, there is a chance that a new cold front coming from the south will bring showers back to Parana toward next weekend.

SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST CHINA

Key growing areas of northeast China received beneficial rainfall early this week. The highest amounts and best coverage favored the key corn growing areas while the main soybean areas also had light to locally moderate showers as well. This should favor development of recently planted crops while briefly delaying the planting effort. Showers may redevelop through southern growing areas early next week.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA RAIN

Western Australia received a round of beneficial showers Thursday. This moisture is timely for newly-seeded wheat. Elsewhere, light showers are possible in southeastern areas. Other major wheat areas will be dry through the coming weekend.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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