DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over the Aleutians extending into the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge with above normal heights covering northwest and central areas of Canada and a trough over far east Canada extending to Greenland and the Arctic Circle. The southern branch of the jet stream shows a trough just off the coast of California, another trough lifting over the upper Midwest and the Manitoba area of Canada and a ridge over the Great Lakes Region. We also note a weak trough over the southeast Gulf of Mexico and the northwest Caribbean sea. The subtropical ridge over Mexico and southern New Mexico and west Texas is a little stronger than what was indicated yesterday.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement in the large scale pattern during the outlook period. There are still a few differences at times. The main features of this pattern would be the mean trough position in the western U.S. to the northern Rockies and at times the northern plains, the trough and surface low coming out of the Gulf of Mexico through the southeast and east-central areas of the U.S. which brings rain close to the Delta and then close to the Ohio river valley and the subtropical ridge surging northward out of Mexico and Texas towards the Midwest and Delta behind the departing southeast U.S. trough. The North-central U.S. region will see increased rain chances later in the 5 day and early in the 6-10 day period associated with the western and north-central trough. Temperatures are well above normal now but should moderate once the showers become established. Temperatures may increase again later in the period.

The central and south plains region may see a few thunderstorms at times from Kansas northward due to small scale disturbances coming east off the bottom of the trough and tracking just north of the south-central U.S. ridge.These should tend to diminish late in the period as the ridge strengthens. Only isolated activity in Oklahoma and Texas, if that. Temperatures well above normal now and will be above to well above normal through out the 10 day period.

The Midwest will be split between activity moving over the northern plains bringing a chance for thunderstorms into the northwestern areas and the activity coming out of the Gulf of Mexico bringing a chance for showers to southeast locations. Otherwise low coverage shower threats and mostly above to well above normal temperatures.

The Delta will see only isolated activity through Monday. The Tuesday, Wednesday time frame is when the tropical moisture will come close to the growing belt. At this time I favor keeping the rains east of the main growing areas but this is somewhat uncertain. After that the ridge is expected to move in and bring hotter, drier weather to the area.

The southeast U.S. region will see increasing shower and thundershower activity during the next few days which become even heavier and more widespread early next week. It is possible that a tropical system would also be involved but this is more uncertain. If a tropical were to develop it might concentrate even heavier rains in a smaller area. However, this would be very difficult to determine this far in advance of the system.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...104 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...26 AT ESTCOURT STATION ME AND LEADVILLE CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY…Not Available.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement in the large scale pattern during the outlook period. There are still a few differences at times.

The main features of this pattern would be the mean trough position in the western US to the northern Rockies and at times the northern plains, the trough and surface low coming out of the Gulf of Mexico through the southeast and east-central areas of the US which brings rain close to the Delta and then close to the Ohio river valley and the subtropical ridge surging northward out of Mexico and Texas towards the Midwest and Delta behind the departing southeast US trough.

The North-central US region will see increased rain chances later in the 5 day and early in the 6-10 day period associated with the western and north-central trough. Temperatures are well above normal now but should moderate once the showers become established. Temperatures may increase again later in the period.

The central and south plains region may see a few thunderstorms at times from Kansas northward due to small scale disturbances coming east off the bottom of the trough and tracking just north of the south-central US ridge.

These should tend to diminish late in the period as the ridge strengthens. Only isolated activity in Oklahoma and Texas, if that. Temperatures well above normal now and will be above to well above normal through out the 10 day period.

The Midwest will be split between activity moving over the northern plains bringing a chance for thunderstorms into the northwestern areas and the activity coming out of the Gulf of Mexico bringing a chance for showers to southeast locations. Otherwise low coverage shower threats and mostly above to well above normal temperatures.

The Delta will see only isolated activity through Monday. The Tuesday, Wednesday time frame is when the tropical moisture will come close to the growing belt. At this time I favor keeping the rains east of the main growing areas but this is somewhat uncertain. After that the ridge is expected to move in and bring hotter, drier weather to the area.

The southeast US region will see increasing shower and thundershower activity during the next few days which become even heavier and more widespread early next week. It is possible that a tropical system would also be involved but this is more uncertain. If a tropical were to develop it might concentrate even heavier rains in a smaller area. However, this would be very difficult to determine this far in advance of the system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

Tropical: It is increasingly more likely that a tropical storm or depression will develop over the south-central Gulf of Mexico within the next couple of days. The track and intensity from there is highly uncertain. Consensus suggests a track first north-northeast and then north-northwest through a landfall somewhere between southern Louisiana and the western Florida panhandle. Longer range a track just east of the lower Miss river valley and southeast of the Ohio river is possible. Again, a highly uncertain forecast and outlook at this time.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Dryness is of increasing concern for crop areas of the southwest belt, especially with the current well above normal temperature pattern. Elsewhere in the region mostly favorable conditions for planting, germination and early development at this time. We will need to watch the recent turn to hot weather and the developing south-central US ridge as it impacts the southwest growing areas.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT): Hot temperatures move northward during the weekend, increasing stress to reproductive and filling wheat and germinating and early developing spring planted crops. Especially stressful in areas already too dry. A few thunderstorms early next week will favor local farms in Kansas and Nebraska but not all will benefit. Little south of there.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for planting and developing spring wheat, corn and soybeans throughout the northern plains. Episodes of scattered showers help to ease dryness concerns.

DELTA/SOUTHEAST US: Heavy rains are likely to hit the southeast US crop belt during the next 5-7 days. This may also include a tropical system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. However, the heavy rain would occur even without development of a tropical. It is uncertain whether this rain would hit as far west as the Delta crop belt. I favor a track that would keep the action east of the Delta at this time. Hot, dry weather will follow the departing low into the Delta region later next week.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): I see no significant chances for rain in the region during the next 10 days. Temperatures likely averaging well above normal as the mean ridge in the area strengthens during this period.

Brazil Corn: Mostly dry with a somewhat hotter trend in the area where most of the second crop corn is grown during the next 5-7 days. Longer range a chance that a new cold front coming from the south will bring showers back to Parana towards next weekend.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Favorable weather for planting spring wheat and canola at this time. Dryness is becoming of increasing concern. Showers have been in the area of central and southeast locations during the past couple of days, helping to ease dryness concerns somewhat. Warm to hot temperatures and little rain through the weekend period, likely depleting some of the moisture just added. Showers next week may favor south-central and east areas.

Some improvement in conditions is possible in eastern areas while central and a little of the west continues unfavorably drier.

CHINA (CORN AND SOYBEANS): Key growing areas of northeast China received beneficial rainfall early this week. The highest amounts and best coverage favored the key corn growing areas while the main soybean areas also had light to locally moderate showers as well. This should favor development of recently planting crops while briefly delaying the planting effort. Showers may redevelop through southern growing areas early next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): A cold front passage has brought needed rain to a portion of the western Australia wheat belt during the past 24 hours. More rain is needed, especially through the eastern part of the western Australia wheat belt. Another cold front is expected later next week. This might mean a few more areas would benefit from showers.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Thundershowers occurred through a portion of southeast Minnesota and in west Missouri near Kansas City overnight. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal west, near to above normal east.

Forecast...

West: A few light showers with isolated heavier favoring eastern and southern areas today. Mainly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average well above normal. Highs upper 80s to low 90s today, low 90s Saturday, 92-96F Sunday.

Dry or with only isolated thundershowers favoring southern Minnesota and northeast Iowa Monday. Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms west, fair central and east, Tuesday. Scattered to widely scattered light to moderate showers with isolated heavier Wednesday. Temperatures average well above normal Monday and Tuesday, cooler but still above normal Wednesday. Upper 80s to low 90s Monday, mostly the 80s Tuesday, low to middle 80s Wednesday.

East: A few light showers with isolated heavier favoring western areas this afternoon or tonight. A few light showers favoring eastern and southern areas Saturday. Mainly dry Sunday. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period. Highs Sunday averaging 88 to 93 F, warmest in the west.

Mainly dry or with only isolated light showers Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers may reach to the Ohio river valley from the south during Wednesday, only isolated activity elsewhere in the region Wednesday. Temperatures upper 80s to low 90s Monday, low to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal during this period. Rainfall near to above normal northwest and near the Ohio river, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Delta (Corn, Soybeans, Cotton)

Summary: A few thundershowers were reported in the region during the past 24 hours, occurring with low coverage. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast: A few light showers with locally heavier today or tonight. Mainly dry or with only isolated light showers Saturday. Dry Sunday. Temperatures average near to a few degrees above normal.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday low pressure coming out of the Gulf of Mexico will bring rain and thunderstorms to southeast Louisiana, south and east Mississippi. This may be a tropical depression or storm as it moves inland but should weaken after landfall. It appears that the heaviest rain associated with this system will stay east of the main growing areas of the Delta but this is somewhat uncertain as it will come fairly close to the area. Temperatures average near to above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal early in the period, above to well above normal later. Rainfall is expected to average near to below normal east, below normal west. However, this would change depending on the track of the system coming out of the Gulf Tuesday.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Dry or with only a few light showers in northeast and far east areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers Saturday.

Scattered showers may occur through southwest and some central areas during Sunday. Temperatures average above to well above normal west, well above normal central and east, during this period. Highs upper 80s to low 90s central and east areas with middle 90s also possible in South Dakota.

Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers favoring the southern and eastern Dakotas region and northern Minnesota Monday and Tuesday.

Light to locally moderate showers elsewhere in the region during this time. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier during Wednesday.

Temperatures average above to near normal during this period. Highs backing off to the upper 70s and low 80s during this time, normal highs for the date would be low 70s.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to near to above normal early in this period, above normal later. Rainfall should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Light to moderate thunderstorms with locally heavier occurred in central and east Kansas yesterday or overnight last night. A small area of thundershowers has moved into north-central Oklahoma early this morning. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast: A few thunderstorms this afternoon or tonight will tend to occur in southeast Kansas, northeast and central Oklahoma. Little elsewhere in the region during this time. Mostly dry during the weekend. Temperatures average well above normal during this period. The hottest day, Saturday, will see highs ranging from 93 to 97F through north and central areas and 97 to 103F from southern Kansas southward.

A few thunderstorms may develop in west Kansas, west and central Nebraska during Monday or Monday night. A few thunderstorms are possible in central and northeast Kansas and southern Nebraska Tuesday. Little elsewhere in the region during these days. Mainly dry Wednesday. Highs range mostly from the upper 80s to low 90s north and low to upper 90s south during this period, except in northeast Colorado where it may dip into the low 80s at times.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal. Rainfall near to below normal north, below normal south.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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