DTN Closing Livestock Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS

The cash cattle trade was generally quiet through the day with just a few lower sales reported in parts of western Nebraska and Colorado (i.e., $112-$114, approximately $8-$10 below last week). According to the closing report, the national hog base $0.58 higher ($59-$66, weighted average $65.08). 2018 corn contracts slumped 4 cents lower on the close, checked by commercial selling and generally positive weather maps in terms of growing conditions. The stock market closed lower with the Dow off 54 points and the Nasdaq off 15.

LIVE CATTLE

Live futures was finally successful in finding more buyers than sellers. Prices settled steady to 122 points higher. Spot June led the long-overdue rally, helped by both short-covering/profit-taking and bull-spreading interest. Needless to say, nothing of technical importance happened here Thursday. Sooner or later, dead-cat bounces just have to pop out of even the most bearish woodwork. Beef cut-outs: mixed, up $1.65 (choice: $232.68) to off $0.26 (select: $208.24) with moderate-to-fairly-good demand and moderate-to-heavy offerings (52 loads of choice cuts, 57 loads of select cuts, 23 loads of trimmings, 11 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:

Steady/weaker with Thursday's lower range (i.e., $112-$114). WTD trade volume totals look relatively light, suggesting the need for more movement on Friday. Yet given the shellshock that feedlot managers must be feeling, business could be done for the week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeders' short-covering rally seemed to have a little more starch than that seen in the live trade. Contracts closed 27 to 200 points higher with a majority of months advancing by triple-digit gains. Having said that, all contracts still remained below eight-day moving average lows. 05/16: $134.83, off $0.84.

LEAN HOGS:

Technically, lean hog futures closed on a mixed basis (i.e., up 75 to off 53). Yet most contracts settled moderately higher with only July and August finishing in the red. Supported by friendly fundamentals, spot June was successful in closing above the 10-day moving average high. Yet besting resistance at the 100-day moving average at $79.20 looks like a tall order, at least for now. Carcass value closed significantly higher thanks to better demand for loins, bellies and picnics. Pork cut-out: $75.50, up $1.11. CME cash lean index for 05/15: $66.14, up $0.91 (DTN Projected lean index for 05/16: $67.01, up $0.87).

FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL:

Steady to $1 higher. Look for hog buyers to open in the morning with steady/firm bids. Some may still need live inventory for Saturday's kill (currently estimated at 81,000 head) as well as starters for next week.

John A. Harrington can be reached at john.harrington@dtn.com

(AG)

Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.