DTN Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Continued rain delays for the Midwest, with possible heavy rains in northern areas, and not much rain for the next 10 days in the southwestern Plains, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

SOME HEAVY MIDWEST RAINS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for heavy rains over northern areas of the Midwest during the next several days, which may also include the central Iowa area. This likely will delay planting progress and fieldwork in these locations. It will be a more favorable period for planting elsewhere in the Midwest, at least for the next few days.

LITTLE RAIN FOR SW PLAINS

The drought areas of west-central and southwest Kansas, southeast Colorado, west Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle may not see much rain during the next 10 days. This maintains stress on jointing to reproductive wheat in the area. Elsewhere in the region, an increase in showers is expected later in the five-day period and early in the six- to 10-day outlook. This allows somewhat more favorable conditions for wheat and early planted summer crops in these locations.

MIXED NORTHERN PLAINS FORECAST

In the Northern Plains, a recent turn to warmer weather will help improve soil temperatures and encourage planting this week. The weather has turned much cooler, and this should last into Saturday before it turns warmer again. Much of North Dakota and northern Minnesota remains dry during the next seven days. Rainfall chances may increase later in the 10-day period, but this is uncertain.

DRY IN DELTA

The Delta region has favorable conditions for planting and developing corn and soybeans, although the drying trend may need to be monitored.

COOLER FOR PRAIRIES

Cool to very cool conditions return to the Canadian Prairies during the next few days, especially central and east areas. A warming trend during the weekend continues into Monday, but there appears to be additional cool weather threats after that. Rainfall may occur, at times, in southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan, but most of the region remains dry during the next seven days. Dry weather and the recent warmer trend will support increasing planting of spring wheat and canola. However, the drier trend may become a concern as we move into late spring and summer.

HOT, DRY IN BRAZIL

Brazil's central crop areas will have hot, dry weather that depletes soil moisture and increases stress to pollinating and filling second-crop (safrinha) corn. Crop losses are expected.

CHINA MOISTURE WATCH

Drier conditions with warmer to hot weather in northeastern China are favorable for row-crop planting and germination. Rainfall will be needed, however, to ensure favorable early development in the weeks ahead, especially over Jilin and Liaoning provinces, where April rains were well-below normal. These areas produce more corn than soybeans. Key soybean areas of Heilongjiang had significant April rains.

Major rapeseed growing areas and the southern portion of the winter wheat belt in China had rain during the weekend, favoring reproductive to filling crops. Northern areas were drier, especially northwest areas. The weather was warm to somewhat hot. A more favorable weather pattern for winter crops in the region, although dryness may be of some concern in some northern areas.

AUSTRALIA SEES DRYNESS IN WEST

Planting season for wheat in Australia nears with some early planting in central Queensland. Dryness is of increasing concern in western and southeast areas. Showers at the end of last week have provided a welcome boost to soil moisture in southern South Australia and in Victoria, but more rain is still needed. Key growing areas of Western Australia remain fairly dry.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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