DTN Midday Grain Comments

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow futures down 55 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 8 points higher. Energies are higher with crude up 0.55. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are weaker with gold down 5.00.

CORN

Corn trade is flat to 1 cent lower with trade remaining mired in the lower end of the range. Fieldwork should expand in some areas this week with drier pockets to the east with warmer temps expected to wait until next week, with delays are expected to persist in Iowa/Minnesota area. Ethanol futures have edged back over the 1.50 mark. The weekly export sales were decent at 1.09 million metric tons. On the May chart, we are right around the 20-day at $3.82 3/8 with the 100-day at 3.71 becoming support if we fade.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade has faded during the day session down, 4 to 6 cents with bull spreads continuing to unwind today. Meal is $2 to $3.00 lower and oil is flat to 10 points higher, with meal values softening, and oil at the low end of the recent range, while crush margins remain positive overall, they have narrowed. The recent pattern in South America should remain intact near term, allowing for greater progress in Brazil harvesting, with values remaining elevated for Brazilian producers to encourage harvest selling in the near term, and the U.S. export wire has quieted down the last few days with no announced sales in a week. Trade will be looking for signs of additional acres, especially with a slow start to planting in the Dakotas on spring wheat and the slow start to corn, along with double-crop potential depending on rains on the plains. Weekly export sales were strong at 1.04 million metric tons of old crop, 1.09 million of new, meal was 164,900, and oil was 28,000 metric tons. On the May contract, trade has slipped below the 50-day at $10.38, with the 100-day at $10.15 as the next level of support.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is mixed at midday with Kansas City wheat leading as the moisture potential has continued to be scaled back on recent runs. Warmer conditions coming should help to boost maturity with rain needed to shake off freeze damage along with salvaging diminished potential. Spring wheat-growing areas look more open but will need to thaw for better progress to be made. Spring wheat seeding is behind in Russia for the moment, but should see better catching up coming forward, with the slide in the ruble helping their export advantage. The weekly export sales were softer at -66,900 of old, and 240,400 of new. On the May Kansas City contract, support is at the 20-day at $4.88 with resistance the 50-day at 4.97.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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