USDA Reports Flash
Brazil Soybeans Reach for a Record as South American Corn Acres Contract
WASHINGTON (DTN) -- As expected, USDA trimmed estimates for the South American corn crop, while predicting a record Brazilian soybean crop of 115 million metric tons (4.2 billion bushels).
Argentine soybeans are expected to decline to just 40 million metric tons (1.5 billion bushels), below what analysts expected.
Domestically, USDA made a small upward adjustment to U.S. corn ending stocks to 2.182 billion bushels, well within pre-report expectations. USDA also trimmed U.S. soybean ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 550 million bushels, also within pre-report estimates.
These numbers were released in USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Tuesday.
USDA's U.S. ending stocks estimates should be considered bullish for soybeans, neutral to bullish for corn and bearish for wheat, said DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom. USDA's global ending stocks estimates should be considered bullish for corn and soybeans and bearish for wheat, he said.
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Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
USDA lowered Argentine corn production from 36 million to 33 million metric tons (1.3 billion bushels), due to lower-than-expected yield and harvested area, as dry conditions increase the amount of corn acreage used for forage and grazing.
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Brazil corn production was also lowered from 94.5 million metric tons to 92 million metric tons (3.6 billion bushels), reflecting expectations of a smaller second-crop acreage.
If realized, Brazil and Argentine corn production would be 14.5 million metric tons (570 million bushels) below the record crop of 2016-17.
As a result, USDA also projected lower global corn ending stocks at 197.8 million metric tons (7.8 billion bushels), down 1.39 million metric tons from the March estimate.
Domestically, USDA trimmed U.S. feed and residual use by 50 million bushels, and also knocked 5 million bushels off of food, seed and industrial use. That led to a direct increase of 55 million bushels in corn ending stocks from the March estimate, for a final estimate of 2.182 billion bushels.
The average U.S. farmgate price remained unchanged at $3.35 per bushel, but the range was narrowed to $3.20 to $3.50 per bushel.
SOYBEANS
USDA estimated that the Brazilian soybean crop will reach 115 million metric tons (4.2 billion bushels), thanks to higher projected yields in Mato Grosso from beneficial rains. USDA lowered Argentine soybean production to 40 million metric tons (1.5 billion bushels), as a result of continued drought there.
Globally, soybean ending stocks fell 3.6 million metric tons to 90.8 million metric tons (3.3 billion bushels).
Domestically, USDA increased soybean crush demand by 10 million bushels to a record 1,970 million bushels, but also lowered seed and residual use. The final ending stock number of 550 million bushels was a 5-million-bushel decrease from the March estimate.
The average U.S. farmgate price for soybeans was pegged at $9.30 per bushel.
WHEAT
Domestic wheat ending stocks were increased 30 million bushels to 1.064 billion bushels, based on lower feed and residual use.
The average U.S. farmgate price for wheat was $4.65 per bushel.
Globally, wheat ending stocks reached 271.2 million metric tons (10 billion bushels), up 2.3 million metric tons from the March estimate.
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Editor's Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, April 10, as he looks at the latest USDA Supply and Demand and Crop Production estimates and what they might mean for the markets. To register, visit https://bit.ly/….
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (million bushels) 2017-2018 | ||||||
| Apr. | Avg. | High | Low | Mar. | 2016-17 | |
| Corn | 2,182 | 2,192 | 2,265 | 2,050 | 2,127 | 2,293 |
| Soybeans | 550 | 570 | 609 | 520 | 555 | 302 |
| Sorghum | 29 | 23 | 26 | 20 | 24 | 33 |
| Wheat | 1,064 | 1,040 | 1,080 | 1,010 | 1,034 | 1,181 |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2017-2018 | ||||||
| Apr. | Avg. | High | Low | Mar. | 2016-17 | |
| Corn | 197.8 | 197.0 | 202.0 | 191.5 | 199.2 | 231.9 |
| Soybeans | 90.8 | 92.9 | 96.0 | 91.0 | 94.4 | 96.7 |
| Wheat | 271.2 | 268.4 | 270.0 | 266.5 | 268.9 | 252.6 |
| WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons) 2017-2018 | ||||||
| Apr. | Avg. | High | Low | Mar. | 2016-17 | |
| Corn | ||||||
| Brazil corn | 92.0 | 92.2 | 96.0 | 86.5 | 94.5 | 98.5 |
| Argentina corn | 33.0 | 33.5 | 36.0 | 31.0 | 36.0 | 41.0 |
| Soybeans | ||||||
| Brazil soybeans | 115.0 | 115.6 | 118.0 | 113.3 | 113.0 | 114.1 |
| Argentina soybeans | 40.0 | 42.3 | 45.0 | 39.0 | 47.0 | 57.8 |
(AG)
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