DTN Early Word Grains

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

May corn was 1 cent higher, May soybeans were 4 cents higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 4 cents higher.

CME Globex Recap:

Markets in general have calmed considerably over the last 24 hours with the grain and oilseed complex higher early Thursday morning on follow-through buying. "Didn't corn and soybeans close lower Wednesday", you ask? Yes, but recall that both were trimming losses as the final bell rang. Kansas City wheat continues to be pulled higher by weather. Energies were quietly mixed while metals were mostly lower. The U.S. dollar index and DJIA futures were both higher.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 230.94 points (1.0%) higher at 24,264.30, the NASDAQ Composite gained 100.83 points (1.5%) to 7,042.11, and the S&P 500 rallied 30.24 points (1.2%) to 2,644.69 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 60 points higher early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed mostly higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 325.87 points (0.1%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed for holiday, and China's Shanghai Composite closed for holiday. European markets were trading higher with London's FTSE 100 up 91.01 points (1.3%), Germany's DAX gaining 213.51 points (1.8%), and France's CAC 40 adding 88.81 points (1.7%). The euro was 0.0003 lower at 1.2274 while the U.S. dollar index gained 0.08 to 90.20. June 30-year T-Bonds were 21/32 lower at 145'02 while June gold lost $9.40 to $1,330.80. Crude oil was $0.10 lower at $63.27 as Brent crude dipped $0.08 to $67.94. Malaysian palm oil futures were higher again overnight.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	Corn could see big weekly export sales and shipment numbers in Thursday's weekly update.	1)	Marketing year total export shipments of corn should still be running well behind USDA's projected pace in Thursday's weekly update.
2)	Newsom's Market Rule #4 states, "A market that can't go down, won't go down." This rule seems to fit old-crop soybeans at this time.	2)	The carry in the soybean May-to-July futures spread continues to strengthen, reflecting an increasingly bearish commercial outlook.
3)	New-crop July Kansas City wheat remains in a minor (short-term) uptrend on its daily chart.	3)	Wheat is still wheat, meaning it could have trouble maintaining buying enthusiasm.

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN Despite Wednesday's wide 17-cent trading range, nothing changed on May corn's short-term daily chart. Technically the contract remains in a minor downtrend, though a move below the previous low of $3.69 1/4 looks unlikely at this time. Similarly, new-crop December looks to be locked into its range between roughly $3.96 and this week's high of $4.16 for now. Noncommercial traders continue to defend their net-long futures holdings despite increasingly bearish fundamentals. The May-to-July futures spread has seen its carry strengthen to 8 3/4 cents, covering approximately 76% of calculated full commercial carry. The new-crop December-to-March spread is also threatening a stronger downtrend if it closes below the 4-week low of 7 1/4 cents carry for the week. Thursday will see the release of USDA's latest weekly export sales and shipment numbers, for the week ending Thursday, March 29.

SOYBEANS The fact soybeans traded higher overnight into Thursday morning wasn't surprising at all. The latter part of Wednesday's session saw the market put together a decent rally, cutting its daily loss to about 22 cents in the old-crop May contract. The reality is China will still buy U.S. soybeans, how many remains the question. Thursday will see the release of USDA's latest weekly export sales and shipment data, for the week ending Thursday, March 29, with total shipments expected to still be well below USDA's projected demand pace. Technically, soybean charts are all over the place given last Thursday's sharp post-USDA report rally and this past Wednesday's sell-off. Fundamentally the market remains bearish, with the carry in the May-to-July futures spread strengthening to 11 1/4 cents early Thursday morning.

WHEAT July Kansas City wheat salvaged Wednesday's session with a higher close, maintaining the minor (short-term) uptrend on its daily chart. New-crop KC wheat still looks to be on a path to test next minor technical resistance at $5.20 1/4, a price that marks the 50% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $5.65 through the low of $4.75 1/2. Fundamentally it's all about weather, with recent morning temperatures plunging below freezing, little to no rain across the U.S. Southern Plains, and plenty of wind putting dirt in the air. Thursday's weekly export sales and shipment update (for the week ending Thursday, March 29) isn't expected to do much for the wheat market in general.

DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.46	-$0.07	-$0.35	May	$0.009
Soybeans:	$9.41	-$0.22	-$0.74	May	$0.007
SRW Wheat:	$4.24	-$0.02	-$0.32	May	$0.000
HRW Wheat:	$4.45	$0.01	-$0.41	May	$0.002
HRS Wheat:	$5.64	-$0.07	-$0.13	May	-$0.005

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

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