DTN Midday Livestock Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Sharp gains have quickly and firmly swept through the cattle market for the second straight trading session. Triple-digit gains are seen in both live cattle and feeder cattle markets, leaving traders looking for additional buyer support through the end of the week. Hog markets are mostly higher as prices are looking to gain momentum over the next few trading sessions, and repair previous market damage done through March. Corn prices are higher in light trade. May corn futures are 6 cents higher. Stock markets are lower in light trade. The Dow Jones is 247 points higher while Nasdaq is up 37 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Strong gains have quickly moved back into the complex during the morning Thursday. The support in feeder cattle futures and overall focus on potential gains moving through the entire cattle market as the shock of potential tariff levels seems to have very limited lasting impact for now. As time passes, it is expected that cattle trade will remain extremely volatile as any renewed talks concerning trade will likely cause a panic. But for now, buyers have found firm support as buyers are willing to cover short positions which have developed over the last couple of weeks. June futures are leading the market higher with a $2.17 per cwt gain at midday, putting the focus on additional market gains in the near future. Cash cattle activity remains generally sluggish with a few bids developing in the north. These bids are seen around $117 live basis and $186 to $187 dressed. With the firm support holding across the futures market, it is likely that feedlot managers will become more aggressive with asking prices and current bids will not get any business accomplished unless packers get more aggressive through the end of the week. Boxed beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.77 higher (select) and down $2.49 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 79 total loads reported (51 loads of choice cuts, 17 loads of select cuts, 4 loads of trimmings, 7 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures have once again led the cattle market higher. This strong market support has continued to draw buyers back to the table with nearby prices reaching $3.40 per cwt during late morning. The focus on triple-digit gains seen in all feeder cattle trade is likely to help bring additional support to the table as prices have quickly and aggressively bounced off of market lows as the market is gaining momentum.

LEAN HOGS:

Even though lean hog futures remain mixed at midday, the underlying tone of the market is firming significantly over the last couple of days. April futures are holding moderate pressure of 50 cents per cwt, while most summer and fall contracts are trading higher with a 20 to 40 cent gain holding at midday. The ability to bring additional buyer support to the market is offsetting the still weak fundamental market moves seen in cash hog and pork values. Strong outside markets are leading toward firm support moving into the hog complex through the end of the week. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $0.53 at $44.80 per cwt with the range from $42.00 to $45.00 on 2,688 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.44 at $43.92 per cwt with the range from $42.00 to $45.00 on 247 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report posted 158 loads selling with carcass values falling $0.46 per cwt. Lean hog index for 4/3 is at $55.60 down 0.40 with a projected two-day index of $55.27, down 0.33.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(SK)

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