DTN Early Word Grains

Opening Day

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

May corn was 1 cent higher, May soybeans were fractionally lower, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 2 cents higher.

CME Globex Recap:

Thursday has finally rolled around, bringing with it USDA's Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports. And baseball. We can't forget about the baseball. The former (USDA reports) had the grain and oilseed complex quiet overnight with corn and wheat up a couple cents while and soybeans within fractions of Wednesday's close. Outside markets were mixed with DJIA futures showing gains.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 9.29 points lower at 23,8488.42, the NASDAQ Composite lost 69.58 points (0.9%) to 6,949.23, and the S&P 500 dipped 7.62 points (0.3%) to 2,605.00 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 70 points higher early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed mostly higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up 127.77 points (0.6%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 70.85 points (0.2%), and China's Shanghai Composite climbing 38.24 points (1.2%). European markets were trading higher with London's FTSE 100 up 24.25 points (0.3%), Germany's DAX rallying 85.45 points (0.7%), and France's CAC 40 adding 29.23 points (0.6%). The euro was 0.0002 higher at 1.2311 while the U.S. dollar index dipped 0.02 to 90.06. June 30-year T-Bonds were 1/32 higher at 145'29 while April gold lost another $0.20 to $1,324.00. Crude oil was $0.10 higher at $64.48 as Brent crude slipped $0.13 to $69.40. China's Dalian soybean futures were higher and Malaysian palm oil futures were lower overnight.

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BULL BEAR
1) Given the weakening carry in its May-to-July futures spread over the winter, corn's quarterly stocks number could come in below expectations. 1) Technically, new-crop December corn is hinting at a larger than expected prospective plantings number Thursday.
2) Similar to corn, old-crop soybeans look to be in position for a bullish surprise with USDA's Quarterly Stocks report. 2) New-crop November soybeans are expected to be influenced by a record large prospective plantings estimate from USDA.
3) New-crop winter wheat contracts are poised to establish short-term uptrends on daily charts to close out the week/month/quarter. 3) While its short-term trend could turn up, July Kansas City wheat's intermediate-term trend on its weekly chart remains down.
4) 4)

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN Technically, old-crop May corn is in position to establish a possible minor (short-term) uptrend on its daily chart Thursday. As it builds a base near support at $3.74 1/2, the contract's daily stochastics sit just below the oversold level of 20%. However, a post-USDA Quarterly Stocks move higher, based on possible smaller than expected stocks on hand as of March 1, could lead to a bullish crossover by stochastics above the 20% level. This isn't as bullish as if it were to occur below the oversold mark. Leaving the door open to another wave of noncommercial selling down the road. New-crop December corn isn't showing the same potentially bullish pattern on its daily chart, hinting at a possible bearish prospective plantings number Thursday. Also, weekly export sales and shipments (for the week ending Thursday, March 22) will be released early Thursday morning. Total export shipments are expected to still be running well behind USDA's projected pace.

SOYBEANS Heading into Thursday's USDA Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports, soybeans resemble corn technically in that old-crop May looks to be a bit more bullish short-term than new-crop November. May beans are sitting near support at $10.19 with daily stochastics slightly below the oversold level of 20%. Also similar to corn, a sharp rally following the release of USDA's quarterly stocks number (as of March 1) could lead to a crossover by stochastics above 20%, a signal that isn't as bullish as if it were to happen below that mark. New-crop November has room to move lower if the prospective plantings estimate comes in larger than expected. Weekly export sales and shipments (for the week ending Thursday, March 22) is also set for release Thursday morning, with last week's stronger carry in the May-to-July futures spread hinting at a bearish level of export demand.

WHEAT From a technical point of view, both new-crop July Kansas City (HRW) and Chicago (SRW) wheat contracts look poised to see a bullish change in minor (short-term) trend. The Kansas City contract is sitting near support at $4.81 1/2 while its daily stochastics are well below the oversold mark of 20%. Similarly, July Chicago is holding above its next support level of $4.59 1/4 with daily stochastics also well below the 20% mark. The catalyst for a potential rally could come from USDA's Prospective Plantings report, set for release Thursday, though this number isn't expected to influence winter wheat much. A more likely candidate to spark buying interest as we close out the week/month/quarter is weather forecasts for the U.S. Southern Plains heading into a three-day holiday weekend.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $3.37 -$0.01 -$0.37 May -$0.003
Soybeans: $9.41 -$0.01 -$0.77 May $0.007
SRW Wheat: $4.14 -$0.02 -$0.32 May $0.011
HRW Wheat: $4.20 -$0.03 -$0.41 May -$0.001
HRS Wheat: $5.73 -$0.04 -$0.17 May $0.001

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

(KR)

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