DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a series of weak troughs over Alaska and western Canada. A blocking ridge over central and eastern Canada and a trough over northwest Greenland. This is a cool/cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific. A ridge over the western U.S. A strong trough in the eastern U.S. and a weak ridge over the western atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement during the first day or two of the outlook period, only fair agreement after that. I am using a little more of today's U.S. model but there is some uncertainty in this outlook. The European model now features a significant portion of the east Pacific trough moving across the Rockies and into the plains...similar to what the U.S. model was doing yesterday. This would suggest a chance for significant precipitation over the northeast plains and western Midwest regions late in the outlook period.

Today's U.S. model features more a of a split jet stream. The main portion of the east Pacific trough hangs back along the west coast while a new trough develops in northwest Canada and moves southward to the eastern Canadian Prairies and the northeast plains before moving into the Great lakes region. This suggests more of a straight cold front passage for the northern plains and western Midwest with only a weak low associated with this front. The precipitation potential would increase somewhat over the east and south Midwest under this scenario but not until day ten. The changes in the models from yesterday makes for uncertain extended range forecasts today. I am going with the model that most reflects recent trends which appears to be the U.S. model today.The early and middle part of the 6-10 day period should be mainly dry in the plains and Midwest regions, cool in the Midwest and warmer in the plains. This is similar on both models.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal.The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino/Joel Burgio

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...86 AT MARATHON FL

LOW WED...13 BELOW ZERO AT YELLOWSTONE LAKE WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY…ATLANTIC CITY NJ 2.23 INCHES.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement during the first day or two of the outlook period, only fair agreement after that. I am using a little more of today's US model but there is some uncertainty in this outlook. The European model now features a significant portion of the east Pacific trough moving across the Rockies and into the plains...similar to what the US model was doing yesterday. This would suggest a chance for significant precipitation over the northeast plains and western Midwest regions late in the outlook period.

Today's US model features more a of a split jet stream. The main portion of the east Pacific trough hangs back along the west coast while a new trough develops in northwest Canada and moves southward to the eastern Canadian Prairies and the northeast plains before moving into the Great lakes region. This suggests more of a straight cold front passage for the northern plains and western Midwest with only a weak low associated with this front. The precipitation potential would increase somewhat over the east and south Midwest under this scenario but not until day ten. The changes in the models from yesterday makes for uncertain extended range forecasts today. I am going with the model that most reflects recent trends which appears to be the US model today.

The early and middle part of the 6-10 day period should be mainly dry in the plains and Midwest regions, cool in the Midwest and warmer in the plains. This is similar on both models.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTH PLAINS/MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/HOGS): Drier weather lasting 5 to 7 days. Cold in the north plains region for a couple more days before it moderates somewhat.

Improving conditions for travel and transport. Slowly decreasing stress to livestock.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): No significant rainfall chances for the west and central areas during the next 6 to 10 days, although very light showers could occur in some locations. Rain will be needed as crop development increases during the coming weeks to prevent significant stress to wheat and potential yield declines.

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN,SUNFLOWER): No significant changes to the overall weather pattern at this time. Dry or mostly dry weather and a variable temperature pattern, sometimes very warm and other times cooler. Stress to filling corn and soybeans continues with increasing crop losses expected until this pattern breaks. A possible exception to this is in southern Buenos Aires where showers may occur with a passing cold front Saturday.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS, CORN): No significant concerns for maturing and harvesting of soybeans and first crop corn in southern Brazil at this time. The harvest of soybeans in northern areas may slow with a few thunderstorms in the area at times. Soil moisture in key second crop corn areas should be adequate to in some cases surplus at this time.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers and a variable temperature pattern should favor reproductive to filling maize and sugarcane at this time. This may be somewhat unfavorable for any early maturing maize in the eastern part of the region.

EUROPE (WINTER GRAINS AND OILSEEDS): West Europe is under a more active weather pattern at this time. This will likely mean mostly rain for the region, helping winter grains and oilseeds to recover after the earlier extreme cold event. Not as active in Germany and Poland but these areas are also much warmer than they were last week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to mostly well below normal.

East: Scattered snow showers, mainly Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, during the past 24 hours. Windy. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today and Friday. Chance for light snow or snow showers favoring western and southern areas during Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today and Friday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Sunday, near to below normal north and near to above normal south Monday and Tuesday.

East: Chance for snow showers northeast and far east areas today, dry elsewhere in the region today. Dry or with only a little light precipitation near the Ohio river during Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today and Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Chance for snow or ice near the Ohio river during Sunday, drier elsewhere in the region Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday, although a few snow may develop in northeast areas. Temperatures average near to below normal, possibly well below normal through northeast areas.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, below normal east, during this period. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Friday. Chance for showers through southeast areas and a little light snow or snow showers northeast during Saturday.

Temperatures average below normal this morning, warmer during the afternoon...especially in western areas. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday, although there is a slight chance for a little light precipitation in southwestern areas. Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal after that. Precipitation below normal west, near to below normal east.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal in the southern areas, near normal north.

Forecast: Dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers possible in northern areas tomorrow or during Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today, warmer tomorrow and Saturday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Sunday and Monday. A slightly higher chance for a few scattered thundershowers Tuesday, mainly in Parana. Temperatures average above normal during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall were reported in Mato Grosso, southern Goias and western Bahia during the past 24 hours. Coverage varied somewhat within these locations, highest coverage looks to be in western Bahia. Drier in MGDS. Temperatures near to above normal, not as hot as during recent days.

Forecast: Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers today through Saturday in the western Bahia and northern Goias region. A few showers and thundershowers in Mato Grosso and southern Goias today with some increase in activity in these areas expected tomorrow and Saturday. Mainly dry in MGDS today through Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal today and Friday, somewhat warmer Saturday.

Scattered to widely scattered afternoon or evening thundershowers Sunday through Tuesday, possibly favoring the Mato Grosso area. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal for the morning lows, near normal for the afternoon highs.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Friday. A few light showers with isolated heavier may occur Saturday or Saturday night, favoring the northern Buenos Aires area. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal tomorrow and Saturday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier during Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures should be cooler Sunday, warmer again Monday and Tuesday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal, well above normal in western areas. Highs yesterday 85 to 91F.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Friday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers favoring south-central and southeast areas during Saturday. Isolated showers may be heavier. Temperatures average well above normal today and Friday, cooler Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only isolated light or very light showers Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average below to near normal during this period.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

Joel Burgio