DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska. And the polar vortex over Canada extending across Greenland. This is a cold/very cold pattern for all of Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western and central U.S. and a strong ridge over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. The center of strong subtropical high pressure is off the coast of the southeast U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement during the next 5 days. Fair agreement days 6-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature some weak ridging over Alaska. A trough over northwest Canada and a strong ridge over northeast Canada and Greenland. This will be a cold pattern for most of Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western U.S. A lower amplitude jet across the central and eastern U.S. and a trough in the western atlantic. Disturbances will eject eastward from the trough in the western U.S. moving along the boundary zone between the cold air to the north and the warm air to the south. This will be an active precipitation pattern for the south-central U.S. including the southern and eastern Midwest. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see near to below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...89 AT MCALLEN TX

LOW WED...29 BELOW ZERO AT DOUGLAS WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY…SHREVEPORT LA 3.39 INCHES.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in only fair agreement today. I favor a compromise between the models but there is much uncertainty. The bottom line is an active weather pattern is likely to continue so long as the mean trough is in the west and the ridge in the Gulf of Mexico does not become strong enough to shut off the gulf flow. Temperatures trend towards below normal west of the Rockies and in the north-central US and Canada. There continues to be hints at colder weather in southeast Canada and the northeast US which might include the east Midwest late in the period due to the development of a strong Greenland ridge forcing the polar trough southward in the area.

The first concern with model agreement occurs early in the period. The US model shows a strong surface storm tracking southwest to northeast across the Midwest next Wednesday. This would lead to a major snow and rain event for the south, central and east Midwest and then a major east coast storm tracking just south of New England. The European model is further south with this storm and does not deepening it much until it is in the Atlantic east of the Carolinas. I would defer to the US model somewhat on this system but probably not as strong as the model suggests with the storm.

The second concern is late in the period. The European model shows a stronger short wave trough diving southeast out of Ontario Canada towards the middle Atlantic region of the US. This is likely in response to the building ridge to its north forcing it southward. This model has a cold bias from the eastern Midwest through the northeast US at the end of the period. The US model does not see this trough. The US model has the deep trough just south of New England at about Thursday, mentioned above, but then lifts this out and is actually warmer in the eastern Midwest at day ten. I am leaning more in the direction of the European model as this is something you would expect to see with a strong ridge over Greenland and northeast Canada as is shown on both the models.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN,SUNFLOWER): Dry weather in the major corn and soybean areas continues to stress filling corn and soybeans with crop losses occurring.

Some beneficial rains over this past weekend in the minor producing areas of southern Buenos Aires. No significant rain is being forecasted during the next 6-7 days, although temperatures are not as hot as they have been.

NORTH PLAINS/MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/HOGS): Snow is expected across the Upper Midwest later today and during tonight leading to travel and transport delays.

A heavy snow and ice event will hit the western Midwest region Saturday. This will greatly impact travel in the region at that time.

SOUTH/EAST MIDWEST AND THE DELTA (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT: Recent and forecasted rains increase the risk for flash flooding and river flooding in these areas.

In some areas severe flooding is expected.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): The main wheat producing areas will miss most of the rain being forecasted for the southeast and south-central areas during this week. Snow with 0.25 to 0.50 inch of melted precipitation will be possible from northern Kansas through Nebraska and northeast Colorado tomorrow and Saturday. No significant cold weather threat at this time.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS, CORN): Some disruptions to the soybean harvest in central Brazil. Rain may also delay the planting effort for second crop corn. Soil moisture is adequate to surplus in the areas that grow most of the second crop corn at this time. Mostly favorable conditions for filling, maturing and any early harvesting of soybeans in southern Brazil, although we did have some locally heavy showers in RGDS Tuesday.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): Episodes of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the region during the next 3 to 5 days. Heavy rainfall totals may occur in north and east areas. This maintains adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops but it may also lead to local flooding. Further rain at this point is neutral at best for filling crops and may be somewhat unfavorable if it leads to severe flooding and/or increased disease pressure.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry or with only a little very light precipitation during the past

24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

East: Moderate rain and showers through south and east-central areas during the past 24 hours. Light, mixed precipitation, through central and northeast areas during this time. Drier northwest. Temperatures averaged above normal south and east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Forecast...

West: Light to locally moderate snow favoring northern areas later today or during tonight. Drier during Friday. Moderate to heavy snow, ice and rain during Saturday into Saturday night. Heavy snow is most likely from east Nebraska and southeast South Dakota through northwest and north-central Iowa, south and east Minnesota. Temperatures average below normal today, below normal west and near to above normal east Friday, below normal north and west and near to above normal southeast Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Chance for light to locally moderate precipitation, favoring southeast areas, during Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday and Tuesday.

East: Episodes of showers, rain and possibly thunderstorms through southern and eastern areas today through Saturday. Much of this rain will fall south and east of a line between Saint Louis and Detroit. Light to locally moderate precipitation is possible through northwest areas later today or during tonight and again during Saturday or Saturday night. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal tomorrow and Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal early in the period, somewhat colder late in the period. Precipitation near to above normal south and east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Rain and thunderstorms occurred through eastern and some of central Texas during the past 24 hours. Snow and widespread freezing rain through central and east Oklahoma, central and east Kansas and southeast Nebraska.

Precipitation totals with this activity was mostly less than 0.20 inch melted but it did may for hazardous travel. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Episodes of rain and showers through southeast and some south-central areas today through Saturday. A little light precipitation elsewhere in the east and north today. Heavy snow or ice for northwest and north areas tomorrow or during Saturday. Precipitation totals of 0.25-0.50 inch may occur in northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado and southern Nebraska with this system.

Snowfall 3-6 inches, possibly more. Temperatures average below normal today, somewhat warmer tomorrow and Saturday...especially in south and east-central areas.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Light to moderate rain southeast and possibly east-central areas during Tuesday or Tuesday night. Temperatures average near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday and Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, above normal east. Precipitation near to below normal west and north, near to above normal southeast.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to mostly below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today, below to near normal Friday and Saturday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier, favoring northern areas, Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers through Mato Grosso and Goias during the past 24 hours. Mainly dry through MGDS during this time. Temperatures near to mostly below normal.

Forecast: Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers favoring central and northern Mato grosso, central and northern Goias during today through Saturday.

Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures near to below normal today, somewhat warmer tomorrow and Saturday.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers through Mato Grosso and Goias Sunday through Tuesday. Seasonal temperatures. Drier and somewhat warmer through MGDS.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Saturday. Temperatures turn warmer, possibly much warmer.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers in south and far west areas Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to mostly below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only isolated light showers during Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Mostly dry Sunday. Dry or with only isolated light showers Monday. A few light showers Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal Sunday and Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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