DTN Early Word Grains

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

March corn was unchanged, March soybeans were 2 cents lower, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 1 cent lower.

CME Globex Recap:

Similar to Wednesday, markets in general were lower early Thursday. Losses were seen in grains and oilseeds, energies, metals, and softs despite a slightly weaker U.S. dollar. DJIA futures were also lower, following through on Wednesday's late collapse in U.S. stocks markets.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 166.97 points (0.7%) lower at 24,797.78, the NASDAQ Composite lost 16.08 points (0.2%) to 7,218.23, and the S&P 500 dropped 14.93 points (0.6%) to 2,701.33 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 21 points lower early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed mostly lower with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 234.37 points (1.1%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling 466.21 points (1.5%), and China's Shanghai Composite up 69.40 points (2.2%). European markets were trading lower with London's FTSE 100 down 69.03 points (1.0%), Germany's DAX losing 107.80 points (0.9%), and France's CAC 40 off 23.94 points (0.5%). The euro was 0.0005 higher at 1.2290 while the U.S. dollar index slipped 0.08 to 90.05. March 30-year T-Bonds were 10/32 higher at 143'00 while April gold lost $6.80 to $1,325.20. Crude oil was $0.33 lower at $61.35 and Brent crude slipped $0.17 to $65.25. China's Dalian soybean futures were higher and Malaysian palm oil futures were mixed overnight.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	Given relatively light overnight selling interest, corn could duplicate Wednesday's session and quickly find buyers.	1)	Corn contracts continue to show short-term downtrends on daily charts.
2)	If soybean meal rallies again Thursday, soybeans are likely to follow.	2)	Keep an eye on old-crop soybean futures spreads for signs of increased commercial pressure.
3)	Much of the western U.S. Southern Plains HRW wheat growing area has missed out on this week's precipitation.	3)	July KC wheat is in position to establish bearish technical signals on its weekly chart.

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN The corn market was quietly lower overnight into Thursday morning with both old-crop May and new-crop December showing trading ranges of just over a penny. Fundamentally there is little fresh news to provide direction, with traders keeping an eye on the weather situation in South America. Weekly export sales data is delayed until Friday morning due to the U.S. holiday this past Monday. Technically corn futures contracts look to have established short-term downtrends on daily charts, though little selling enthusiasm has been seen. If soybeans gain downside momentum over the course of the session, corn could follow.

SOYBEANS Soybean contracts were showing small losses early Thursday morning, though selling enthusiasm seemed limited overnight. The market could duplicate Wednesday's action, with the open of the day session easily erasing the overnight move. Fundamentally the story remains South American weather, with Argentina too dry and parts of Brazil too wet. While old-crop futures spreads continue to show commercial traders are comfortable at this time, this could change by the time we reach the weekend. Soybean meal was also slightly lower early Thursday morning. From a domestic point of view, weekly export shipment data is delayed until Friday due to this past Monday's U.S. holiday.

WHEAT Winter wheat markets were showing losses again early Thursday, with pressure in Kansas City likely tied to recent winter precipitation across the eastern Southern Plains growing area. However, much of the western area has missed out on this week's events. The July Kansas City contract was down about a penny, still in position to establish a bearish technical signal on its weekly chart. Fundamentally, weekly export sales and shipment data is delayed until Friday due to this past Monday's U.S. holiday.

DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.36	$0.00	-$0.30	Mar	$0.002
Soybeans:	$9.64	$0.08	-$0.70	Mar	$0.002
SRW Wheat:	$4.19	-$0.02	-$0.28	Mar	$0.001
HRW Wheat:	$4.25	-$0.06	-$0.41	Mar	$0.001
HRS Wheat:	$5.85	-$0.01	-$0.16	Mar	$0.003

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

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