DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Additional Losses Sweep Through Cattle Trade

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN photo by Russ Quinn)
GENERAL COMMENTS:

Follow-through pressure has continued to develop in cattle trade with the focus split between pressure developing in the cash cattle markets and additional weakness seen as prices reach technical tipping points. Hog trade is holding firm support Thursday. Corn prices are steady to higher in light trade. March corn futures are 3/4 cent higher Thursday. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 303 points higher while Nasdaq is up 45 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Lower trade continues to be seen in most live cattle futures, although prices have been seen in a very wide range of movement through the morning. At midday prices range from $1.27 per cwt lower to 12 cents per cwt higher. The overall lack of buyer support seen in nearby contracts has caused widespread nearby market losses to redevelop. But deferred futures remain steady to slightly higher as the focus on lack of additional trade moving into the market may help to allow market firmness. There continues to be some additional longer term trade activity developing in the complex as traders are focusing on the ability to not only adjust prices, but stabilize open interest at the end of the week. Cash cattle trade is starting to slowly pick up in the North with dressed trade reported at $204 to $205 per cwt. These prices are steady to $1 per cwt lower than last week, and may be the trend for the week even though more activity is expected to develop before the end of the week. Live bids are being restated at $127 to $128 live basis. Prices of $128 per cwt were able to establish light sales activity Wednesday, but the overall uncertainty of the market may continue to limit trade at these levels. But packers continue to need cattle to keep chain speed active through the end of the month. Asking prices remain firm at $130 live basis and $205 dressed. Boxed beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $0.22 higher (select) and up $0.04 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 57 total loads reported (42 loads of choice cuts, 9 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 6 loads of ground beef).

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FEEDER CATTLE:

Firm pressure is seen through feeder cattle futures once again Thursday. Even though markets have been contained to moderate losses through the morning, there is still an uneasiness surrounding the entire complex as prices seem to have a hard time finding any sense of short-term support. Prices are holding within a range of 30 to 60 cents per cwt lower as the overall lack of direction in the market continues to focus on increased market pressure and the late-month pullback from previous highs.

LEAN HOGS:

Firm follow-through support has quickly moved into the lean hog complex Thursday with prices 80 cents to $1 per cwt higher during most of the morning trade. Price levels have changed very little during the morning after initial position taking developed and increased volume was seen through the complex. The inability to move prices higher is focusing on the overall lack of new interest seen in the market, although prices have broken through last week's highs in search of additional underlying support. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $0.57 at $63.36 per cwt with the range from $57.00 to $63.50 on 2,370 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant Report posted 177 loads selling with carcass values adding $0.88 per cwt. Lean hog index for 2/20 is at $70.78, down 0.63 with a projected two-day index of $70.17, down 0.61.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

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Rick Kment