DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak blocking ridge over Alaska extending northward to the pole. A strong polar vortex dominates most of Canada and some weak ridging over northeast Greenland. This is a cold/very cold pattern for most of Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A broad trough over the northern U.S. A weak trough in the southwest U.S. and a flat ridge over the south-central and southeast U.S. The center of strong subtropical high pressure is located over the central Gulf of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement during the next 8 days. Fair agreement days 9-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over Alaska extending northward towards the pole. The polar vortex dominates most of Canada extending into western Greenland. This will be a cold/very cold pattern for most of Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the interior western U.S. and a strong ridge over the southeast U.S. and southwest atlantic. Disturbances will eject eastward from the trough in the western U.S. moving along the boundary zone between the cold weather to the north and west and the warm weather to the south and east. Parts of the south-central U.S. including the eastern Midwest will see some significant precipitation from this pattern. Temperatures will be variable, warmer out ahead of systems, colder behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see mostly below normal temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...96 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW THU...7 BELOW ZERO AT PLENTYWOOD MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY…TUCSON AZ 1.25 INCH.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the early and middle portion of the period, fair agreement at the end of the period. I favor a little more of today's European model as it concerns the last part of the run. The US model has more rain at the end of the period covering much of the central and south plains wheat belt. I favor the European model which features this rain chance further east into the southeast plains and the Delta and is not as heavy.

The mean maps at 8-10 days continue to feature a strong ridge over the southeast US and well above normal heights from the southeast plains eastward through the southern and eastern Midwest and the eastern US into the Atlantic.

There are signs that the ridge may flatten somewhat and spread westward across the Gulf of Mexico. If this does occur it would tend to shut off the Gulf flow and decrease the moisture streaming northward into the Gulf coast States. This somewhat uncertain, at best, so for now this is being down played. We also note the strong polar trough remains in place over north-central and northeast Canada with a secondary center over the northern Atlantic. The trough in the US is split between the southwest US and the northern Rockies to northern plains region. The ridge in the Pacific is slightly further west than it has been.

Canada stays cold for now, however if the Pacific ridge continues to retrograde it might allow more of a moderate westerly flow into the southern areas with time.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN,SUNFLOWER): Showers are mentioned in my forecasts below for southern areas Sunday and for the main growing belt Monday. However, this activity is not expected to be enough to change the situation for either area.

The longer range outlook, 6-10 days, suggests a continued below normal rainfall pattern and with near to above normal temperatures. Stress will continue due to drying soils and episodes of above normal temperatures. Crop losses appear likely and are increasing.

NORTH PLAINS/MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/HOGS): Episodes of snow and cold will continue to stress livestock in the northern plains with some disruption to transport at times. A more variable temperature and precipitation pattern in the southern Minnesota and Iowa area with warm and cold temperatures and rain and snow chances.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): The current weather pattern with ridging in the southeast and a trough in the southwest increases the chance for needed rains to occur in a portion of the region. The best chance is in southeast areas but there is at least some chance for needed rains in south-central and a portion of the east-central growing belt as well.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS, CORN): There appears to be at least some chance for moderate to locally heavy rain activity in RGDS this coming Monday into Tuesday, favoring west and north areas. Beside this event the chances for meaningful rain appears limited during the next 10 days. Rain is likely to return to Parana and the center-west areas of Brazil late this weekend through early next week. This will disrupt the harvest of soybeans and the planting effort for second crop corn.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): A mostly favorable weather pattern for maize and sugarcane areas at this time. Episodes of scattered thundershowers and warm temperatures favor reproductive to filling crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

East: Moderate to locally heavy rain occurred in southern Illinois, through southern and eastern Indiana and most of Ohio during the past 24 hours. Light rain elsewhere in Indiana and in extreme southern Michigan. A little light precipitation through central Illinois. Temperatures averaged well above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Chance for a little light precipitation during Sunday. Temperatures average below normal today, above normal tomorrow and Sunday.

Light to moderate precipitation favoring eastern and southern areas during Monday into Tuesday. Drier later Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal north and west and above normal southeast Monday, below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

East: Rain may linger near the Ohio river this morning, dry this afternoon.

Chance for a little light precipitation favoring central and southeast areas during Saturday. Mainly dry during the daytime hours of Sunday. Showers are expected Sunday night. Temperatures average above normal this morning, near normal this afternoon, near normal tomorrow, near to above normal Sunday.

Episodes of showers, rain and possibly thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

Rain may linger in the south and east areas into Wednesday. Rainfall during this period appear moderate to heavy. Temperatures average above to well above normal Monday and Tuesday, somewhat colder during Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal south and east, somewhat more variable northwest. Precipitation near to above normal south and east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Strong winds and a little very light precipitation, favoring southern areas, yesterday or last night. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Rain, 0.10-0.50 inch, is possible late today or during tonight from southern Oklahoma southward into northern Texas. Drier during Saturday. Showers Sunday through southeast areas. Temperatures average near to below normal today, above normal again during the weekend.

Mostly dry Monday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers through eastern and southern Oklahoma and northern Texas during Tuesday into Wednesday.

There is a slight chance this rainfall may reach into southeast Kansas during this period. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures average above normal south and east and near to below normal northwest Monday, colder through the region Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, above normal east. Precipitation below normal west and northeast areas, near to above normal southeast.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier, mostly in Parana, during the weekend. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Light to moderate showers and thundershowers are possible from northwest RGDS through Parana during Monday. Showers and thundershowers may linger in Parana during Tuesday. Drier Wednesday. Temperatures turn cooler during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Dry or with only isolated showers favoring western areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers again today. A few afternoon showers Saturday may favor southern areas. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers during Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers for much of the region Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal. Highs mostly 90-92F yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring southern areas during Sunday. Temperatures average above normal. High temperatures mostly 90 to 95F each day.

Scattered light showers with locally heavier during Monday. Drier Tuesday.

Dry Wednesday. Temperatures turn somewhat cooler during this period but may still average near to above normal.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal. Highs yesterday ranged from 88 to 98f, 97f at Santa Rosa in La Pampa, 98f at Bahia Blanca Buenos Aires.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few very light showers in southwest areas Saturday. Scattered light showers with locally heavier during Sunday. Temperatures average well above normal today and Saturday with highs mainly 95 to 100F. Not as hot Sunday due to clouds and showers in the area.

A few light showers may linger in the east and north areas Monday, drier elsewhere in the region Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Dry or with only light showers developing in western areas Wednesday. Temperatures should be somewhat cooler Monday before turning warmer again Tuesday and Wednesday.

By Joel Burgio, DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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