Market Impact Weather

Minimal Argentina Rain Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Mainly dry conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil, and sagging conditions for Southern Plains winter wheat, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

LIMITED ARGENTINA PRECIPITATION

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for some sizeable portions of Argentina’s major crop areas to undergo extreme heat and below-normal rainfall during the next week. This combination is especially likely in La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires, along with Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires. The western state of Cordoba is also likely to have stressful heat and dryness, even after receiving some beneficial rainfall during the past weekend.

FAVORABLE CENTRAL BRAZIL PATTERN

Central Brazil remains in line for periods of rainfall along with seasonal temperatures. This combination is favorable for crops.

CAUTIOUS TONE IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

In southern Brazil, the forecast offers more caution regarding trends over the next week. The far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul may have drier and hotter conditions than previously indicated. Meanwhile, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul continue with a favorable pattern for crops.

COLD AND DRY IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, cold and dry conditions are taking their toll on winter wheat. Subzero cold over north and central areas this past Sunday and Monday mornings may mean some limited damage to unprotected wheat, especially in southern Nebraska, southwest, central and northeast Kansas. Temperatures are expected to moderate over the next week to 10 days. Meanwhile, wheat condition ratings are very low. Kansas good to excellent wheat ratings are just 37%, 14 percentage points below late November and seven points lower than a year ago. In Oklahoma, good to excellent ratings total just 15% compared with 25% a year ago and 30% in late November.

MIDWEST MODERATION

In the Midwest, slowly-moderating temperatures will ease livestock stress and transportation issues. However, some winter wheat may have been damaged by the recent harsh cold wave.

MILDER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, extreme cold has been stressful to livestock during the past week. A milder weather trend is expected during the next week, which will offer improved conditions.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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