DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a blocking ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada extending up towards the pole. A trough over central and eastern Canada extending into western Greenlan and a ridge over eastern Greenland and Iceland. This is a very cold pattern for most of Canada. The southern branch of the jet stream features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the central and eastern U.S. extending across the western atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is along the west-central coast of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days, fair-poor agreement days 7-10. We are leaning more towards the U.S. model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over Alaska and far western Canada. A trough over most of Canada and a ridge between Greenland and Iceland. This will be a cold/very cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific. A ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the central and eastern U.S. and western atlantic. Significant precipitation associated with the trough will be mostly in the eastern U.S. Cold air in Canada will continue to move southward into the central U.S. under the trough aloft. However there could be some break in the cold weather in between outbreaks early next week.

This pattern will feature below to much below normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation near to below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see below to much below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...86 AT PALM SPRINGS CA AND SAN BERNARDINO CA LOW TUE...36 BELOW ZERO AT MALTA AIRPORT MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...MIAMI BEACH FL 0.21 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair agreement only for the first day or two of the period, poor agreement after that. I favor today's US model as it is more in keeping with recent trends. However, due to significant model differences there is uncertainty in this outlook.

The European model features a somewhat more active southern branch jet stream during the 8-10 day period. A short wave trough moves across the southern Rockies, the central and southern plains and into the middle Miss river valley using this model next Wednesday through Friday. This would suggest a chance for precipitation in the southern plains wheat belt and then into the Miss and Ohio river valleys. The model is also somewhat warmer as heights aloft are normal or above normal throughout the US and well above normal from the Midwest and Delta to the northeast US.

The US model features a short wave trough moving west to east across the northern plains, the northern Midwest and the Great Lakes region during this time period. The model see only a weak southern branch trough mainly over the Baja and northwest Mexico. This model suggests a brief moderation in temperatures in the Midwest followed by more cold weather. Precipitation chances are more for the north and east Midwest and less for the southern plains and Delta. The mean map at 8 to 10 days for the US model features a trough over eastern North America with below normal heights extending through the Great Lakes region, the eastern Midwest and the northeast US.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN): Episodes of extreme heat and a below normal rainfall pattern increases the risk to crops grown in La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires province during the period. Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires also look to trend towards above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall during the next 7 to 10 days which will increase the risk in this area as well. Cordoba had needed rainfall during the weekend but with hot weather preceding the showers and a drier pattern the balance of this week this moisture will be quickly used up.

BRAZIL, SOUTH (SOYBEANS, CORN): This remains a favorable weather pattern in Parana and MGDS at this time. In RGDS crops should have adequate moisture for current needs but there are hints of a drier, warmer than normal weather pattern during the next 7-10 days.

BRAZIL, NORTH (SOYBEANS areas in Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Goias and Bahia):

Favorable conditions for developing soybeans with the normal summer rainy season continuing.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Subzero cold over north and central areas this past Sunday and Monday mornings may mean some limited damage to unprotected winter wheat, especially in southern Nebraska, southwest, central and northeast Kansas. A more favorable pattern for overwintering wheat during the second part of this week and for much of next week.

NORTH PLAINS/WEST MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/HOGS): Extreme cold conditions increases stress to livestock through the north-central US region. Snow occurred through a portion of this region during recent days.

EAST MIDWEST/DELTA (WINTER WHEAT): Subzero cold through the northern portion of the Soft Red winter wheat areas during the weekend period and yesterday morning. Some damage may have occurred.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): Episodes of scattered thundershowers through southern and eastern areas have maintained favorable conditions for developing maize and sugarcane in these locations recently. However, it appears to be drier and hotter during the next 7 days or so. Dry, hot weather continues to increase concern for maize in north-central, northwest and west-central locations.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged well below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged well below normal.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average well below normal.

Mainly dry Saturday. Light to locally moderate precipitation Sunday will favoring southern and east-central areas. Mainly dry again Monday. Temperatures average below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday.

East: Mainly dry today through Friday, except snow squalls are likely in lake effect regions just east of Lake Michigan. Temperatures average well below normal.

Mostly dry Saturday. Light to moderate precipitation with locally heavier possible during Sunday into early Monday...heaviest southern and eastern areas.

Drier later Monday. Temperatures average below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday and Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal.

Precipitation below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below normal east today, above normal west and below normal east Thursday, above normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only light precipitation favoring eastern areas Sunday. Dry Monday. Temperatures average mostly above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal early in the period, somewhat colder again late in the period. Precipitation below normal west, near to below normal east.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

MGDS, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul...

Moderate to locally heavy showers were reported through portions of Santa Catarina, Parana and MGDS during the past 24 hours. Light to locally moderate showers through northern areas of RGDS during this time. Little further south.

Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Saturday through Monday. Showers will tend to occur in RGDS Saturday and from Santa Catarina northward during Sunday and Monday. Temperatures average near normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged near to above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today and most of Thursday. Chance for a few light showers with locally heavier later Thursday or during Thursday night into Friday.

Temperatures above normal today and Thursday, cooler Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average near normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today. A few light showers favoring north and east areas during Thursday. Drier again Friday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal tomorrow, below normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday.

By Joel Burgio
DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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