DTN Early Word Grains

Visions of Sugar Plums

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

March corn was fractionally higher, March soybeans were 1 cent lower, and March Chicago (SRW) wheat was 1 cent higher.

CME Globex Recap:

Grains were mostly higher with corn and the wheat complex showing small gains while rice and oats were lower early Thursday morning. On the other hand global oilseeds were mostly lower with selling seen in both Chicago and Dalian soybeans, bean oil, canola, and Malaysian palm oil while soybean meal was quietly higher. Energies and metals were lower and softs mostly higher while the U.S. dollar did little and DJIA futures rallied again.

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OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 28.10 points (0.1%) lower at 24,726.65, the NASDAQ Composite lost 2.89 points to 6,960.96, and the S&P 500 dipped 2.22 points to 2,679.25 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 22 points higher early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 25.62 points (0.1%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 132.97 points (0.5%), and China's Shanghai Composite adding 12.45 points (0.4%). European markets were trading mixed with London's FTSE 100 up 19.10 points (0.3%), Germany's DAX off 2.01 points, and France's CAC 40 down 3.60 points. The euro gained 0.0001 to 1.1874 as the U.S. dollar index added 0.01 to 93.37. March 30-year T-Bonds were 5/32 higher at 150'23 while February gold lost $1.00 to $1,268.60. January bitcoin (CME) was $295 lower at $16,745. Crude oil was $0.10 lower at $57.99 while Brent crude slipped $0.15 to $64.41. China's Dalian soybean and Malaysian palm oil futures were both lower again overnight.

BULL BEAR
1) Both old-crop and new-crop corn contracts have established minor (short-term) uptrends on daily charts. 1)

Total marketing year shipments of corn are expected to be disappointing in Thursday's weekly sales and shipment update.

2) Old-crop soybeans have moved into ridiculously oversold territory, from a technical point of view, and could find at least light buying interest. 2) The long-term soybean monthly chart in soybeans is showing a bearish outside month, needing only a lower monthly close to complete.
3) The recently established secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend on July Kansas City wheat's weekly chart continues to strengthen. 3) As with corn, total marketing year shipments of wheat are expected to be less than stellar in Thursday's weekly update.

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN Minor (short-term) trends for both old-crop and new-crop corn have turned up on daily charts, allowing market bulls to finally dream of a possible turn on weekly charts as well. The overnight session was quiet, as expected, with nearby March posting a trading range of 1 cent on volume (futures only) of 3,700 contracts. The initial upside short-term target for new-crop December is now $3.91, a price that marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous downtrend from $4.29 1/2 through the recent low of $3.79 1/4. The most logical course of support for both old-crop and new-crop would be noncommercial end of the year short-covering. Fundamentally, Thursday's weekly export sales and shipments update (for the week ending Thursday, December 14) isn't expected to show much change in total projections.

SOYBEANS Instead of sugar plums dancing in soybeans' noggin ahead of its upcoming long winters nap (the week between Christmas and New Year's Day holidays), it's probably coal. The more active March contract extended the old-crop market's minor (short-term) downtrend overnight, posting a low of $9.62 1/2 despite daily stochastics (short-term momentum study) sitting near 3%. Recall that 20% is considered oversold, and 10% sharply oversold. But things are getting in ugly in soybean-town, with the market's long-term monthly chart now showing a bearish outside range during December while building toward a likely lower monthly close. This would suggest that long-term pressure could continue to build, a factor already hinted at by the market's increasingly bearish forward curve. Fundamentally, U.S. total shipments will be update in Thursday weekly export sales and shipment update, though no dramatic change is expected to be seen from the current pace. Also, South American weather continues to become more important as the end of December draws near and January, or South America's equivalent of July, begins.

WHEATWinter wheat market bulls are finally dreaming big, with new-crop July Kansas City establishing an uptrend on its weekly chart while old-crop March Chicago makes another attempt at breaking through technical resistance at its 20-day moving average. The latter is calculated at $4.24 3/4 Thursday with the contract posting an overnight high of $4.25. While overnight spread results could be skewed by low volume, the weakening carry in Chicago would hint at renewed commercial buying. Let's see if this continues over the course of Thursday's session. Weekly export sales and shipment numbers (for the week ending Thursday, December 14) aren't expected to be outstanding given total demand projected by the current pace of shipments. Still, the prospect of an end of the year rally looks to be gaining momentum.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $3.12 $0.02 -$0.38 Mar $0.006
Soybeans: $8.86 -$0.02 -$0.68 Jan $0.003
SRW Wheat: $3.86 $0.03 -$0.38 Mar -$0.013
HRW Wheat: $3.69 $0.03 -$0.53 Mar $0.000
HRS Wheat: $5.92 $0.00 -$0.26 Mar $0.003

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

(KR)

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