DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada extending up towards the pole. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is a mild/warm pattern in western Canada, cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the central and eastern U.S. extending into the western atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over southern Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 5 days, fair agreement days 6-10. During the 6-10 day period little change in the pattern is expected. The northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over Alaska and far western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This will be a cold pattern for much of Canada except the far west. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific. A ridge along and off the west coast of the U.S. and a trough over the central and eastern U.S. This will be a mostly below normal precipitation pattern for the central U.S. due to the strong west to northwest flow aloft around the trough preventing the northward flow of gulf moisture. The only except to this will be in the south-central U.S. on Sunday where some gulf moisture will be available over the Delta states. Any precipitation activity in the Midwest will be from moisture starved Alberta clipper systems. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of these systems, colder behind them as cold air moves southward out of Canada.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...87 AT OXNARD CA AND FILLMORE CA AND LAKE ELSINORE CA LOW TUE...14 BELOW ZERO AT PRESQUE ISLE ME

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...PORTLAND ME 0.76 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement early in the outlook period, fair agreement late in the period. I favor a blend between the models today.

Early in the outlook period the western North America ridge remains weaker and this allows for a further north position on the eastern Canada trough. This limits the southward push on any cold weather in Canada and keeps the key Midwest and central to Southern Plains crop belts relatively warmer. Later in the period the U.S. model shows a significant strengthening of the ridging over the northeast Pacific, the Gulf of Alaska, Alaska and northwest Canada. This leads to a deepening of the eastern Canada trough but without the high latitude ridging in the Greenland area there is still only so far south this trough can move. A more interesting result from the build-up of the northwest Canada/Alaska ridge aloft is the development of a strong surface high in the area which than moves southward with time. The U.S. model shows this high exceeding 1050 mb and at one point 1055 mb. Strong surface highs over northwest Canada at this time of the year normal means much colder weather. However, the European model shows much less ridging over northwest Canada and Alaska late in the period. As a result this model has a weaker and shallower east Canada trough and only manages to build the surface high to about 1037 to 1041 mb.

This is not as cold of a high and is not as threatening to the U.S. interests. It is likely the upper ridge/surface high will come in somewhere between the models. So look for colder weather returning to the north-central U.S. later in the outlook period but probably not as cold as the U.S. model suggests.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN): A strong cold front is expected to bring the chance for needed rains to occur in key growing areas during the coming weekend. Ahead of this front hot to very hot temperatures will occur so by the time the thunderstorms develop the rain will be much needed.

BRAZIL, NORTH (SOYBEANS areas in Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Goias and Bahia):

Favorable conditions for developing soybeans with the normal summer rainy season continuing...although recent very heavy rains in Mato Grosso may have been somewhat unfavorable.

BRAZIL, SOUTH (SOYBEANS, CORN): A turn to drier weather favors the remaining soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul. However this situation bears watching as La Nina's can promote drought in southern Brazil. There appears to be some chance for showers in RGDS, at times, during the next week to ten days. It is not clear whether this will include meaningful rainfall or not but it is certainly possible. Stay tuned.

MIDWEST (CORN): Snow is expected through northeast areas today or tonight which may bring severel inches to some areas. This will impact any remaining harvesting in the area. No significant stormy weather in west or south areas during the next 7 days. No significant cold weather the next 7 days. Some risk for colder after that.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): A warm temperature pattern during the next 7 days will prevent the winter wheat crop from going into full dormancy. This will further stress the crop due to continued dry weather depleting soil moisture. There is some chance it may turn colder later in the

10 day period but this is somewhat uncertain.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Drier weather during this week will benefit the wheat harvest. Favorable soil moisture for cotton and sorghum in the northeast.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): Favorable conditions for planting and developing corn throughout the region.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal west, near to below normal east.

East: Snow showers occurred through northeast and far east areas yesterday.

Mainly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to mostly below normal.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry or with only a few light snow showers today and Thursday. Dry Friday. Temperatures average above to well above normal today, somewhat colder tomorrow and Friday but still above normal.

Mostly dry or with only a little very light precipitation Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

East: Snow, 2-5 inches, northeast areas today or during tonight...especially likely in Michigan and north Ohio. Mainly dry or with only a little light precipitation tomorrow and Friday. Temperatures average mostly below normal north and east, somewhat more variable southwest locations.

Mostly dry Saturday. Chance for light to locally moderate rain and some mixed precipitation through southeast to east-central areas during Sunday.

Mainly dry again Monday. Temperatures average above normal west and south areas, near to above normal northeast locations.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures average near to above normal during the first few days of the period, somewhat colder at the end of the period. Precipitation below normal west, near to below normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal west and northeast areas, near to above normal southeast.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average above to well above normal today, above normal Thursday, above to well above normal Friday.

Chance for rain in minor eastern Texas wheat areas Saturday, dry elsewhere in the region Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures average above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures average mostly above to sometimes well above normal. Precipitation below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal south, near normal north. Highs yesterday ranged mostly between 86 and 94F, warmest west-central to southwest areas.

Forecast...

Dry today. Dry or with only isolated light showers tomorrow or during Friday. Temperatures average above normal today and Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Highs today and Thursday likely 88 to 96F, 85 to 93F Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. A few light showers may occur during Sunday. Light to locally moderate thundershowers Monday but with coverage only about 40 or 50 percent. Temperatures above normal Saturday, near to above normal south and above normal north Sunday and Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Scattered showers and thundershowers occurred mainly in northeast Mato Grosso, central Goias, northern Minas Gerais and Bahia during the past 24 hours. Temperatures near to above normal west and south areas, below normal northeast locations.

Forecast...

Scattered showers favoring north and east areas today through Friday.

Temperatures average mostly above normal in the west and south areas, somewhat cooler northeast areas.

Scattered to widely scattered showers Saturday through Monday, possibly favoring north and east areas. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal.

Highs mostly 90 to 92F yesterday.

Forecast...

A few light showers may develop today or during tonight. Mostly dry Thursday and during the daytime hours of Friday. A few more light showers may occur Friday night. Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday. Highs ranging from 88 to 97F during this period..hottest today and also Friday.

Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected during Saturday into Saturday night. These appear most likely in Santa Fe, northeast Buenos Aires and Entre Rios but may be more widespread than that. Severe weather may occur with the thunderstorms. Drier during Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers Monday. Temperatures continue hot Saturday but it should be cooler Sunday and Monday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Light showers with locally heavier occurred yesterday or last night in La Pampa, southwest and south-central Buenos Aires. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal west, near normal east. Highs ranging from 84 to 96F yesterday.

Forecast...

Light to locally moderate showers today. Mostly dry Thursday. Dry or with only a few light showers Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Thursday, above normal Friday.

Light to locally moderate showers favoring north and east areas during Saturday. Heavier showers may occur in the minor growing areas of eastern most Buenos Aires. Mainly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures turn cooler Saturday and Sunday, warmer again Monday.

By: Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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