DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a strong ridge over Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a ridge over Greenland. This is a mild pattern in western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A strong ridge along the west coast of the U.S. and a broad trough extending from southwest to northeast across the U.S. The center of subtropical high pressure is located in the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days. Fair-poor agreement days 9-10. The main difference between the models today is in the timing of a migratory trough. The European model brings this trough through the mean ridge position in the western U.S. on day 8 with it heading eastward so that by the end of the period the ridge is building in the west again with the trough heading into the eastern U.S. The U.S. model does not pick up on the migratory trough until day 9 when it is over southwest Canada moving into the mean ridge position. This trough is over the interior western U.S. on day 10.

This trough progresses eastward with the ridge building back into the western US beyond day 10. The US model at day 13 looks like the European model at day 10. The intermediate run (6z) of the U.S. model tends to lean more towards the 00z run of the U.S. model so we will lean in that direction. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a strong ridge over Alaska and western Canada. The polar vortex over central and eastern Canada extending southward into central and eastern U.S. and some weak ridging over Greenland. This will be a mild/warm temperature pattern for western Canada, cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough in the western Gulf of Alaska. A ridge along either side of the west coast of the U.S. and the southward extension of the polar vortex over the central and eastern U.S. The mean features remain further to the west today.This means a more variable temperature pattern for the plains and western Midwest and more below normal temperatures in the eastern Midwest. Precipitation should be minimal in the central U.S., mostly in the form of Alberta clipper lows diving southward into the trough but containing no gulf moisture.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the western Midwest, mostly below normal in the east. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...85 AT MIAMI FL

LOW THU..12 BELOW ZERO AT SHIRLEY BASIN WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...San Antonio TX 1.05 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement through 7 days. Fair-poor agreement days 9-10. The main difference between the models today is in the timing of a migratory trough. The European model brings this trough through the mean ridge position in the western US on day 8 with it heading eastward so that by the end of the period the ridge is building in the west again with the trough heading into the eastern US. The US model does not pick up on the migratory trough until day 9 when it is over southwest Canada moving into the mean ridge position. This trough is over the interior western US on day 10.

This trough progresses eastward with the ridge building back into the western US beyond day 10. The US model at day 13 looks like the European model at day 10. The intermediate run (6z) of the US model tends to lean more towards the 00z run of the US model so we will lean in that direction.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN): Little rainfall and episodes of hot weather during the next 7 days depletes soil moisture increasing stress on crops. About half of the corn and soybean acreage has been planted at this point. This situation bears watching as La Nina tends to promote drought in central Argentina.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS areas in Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Goias and Bahia):

Favorable conditions for developing soybeans with the normal summer rainy season continuing.

BRAZIL, SOUTH (SOYBEANS, CORN): A turn to drier weather favors the remaining soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul. However this situation bears watching as La Nina's can promote drought in southern Brazil. Mostly dry weather is expected during the next 7 days along with episodes of hot weather. This will deplete soil moisture.

MIDWEST (CORN): Cold temperatures and episodes of light snow will impact the remaining harvest over Indiana and Ohio.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): A turn to more variable temperatures in the southern plains will put the crop into a more dormant state. This is favorable as soils have been turning drier. Dry weather is expected to continue during the next 7 days.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Drier weather will benefit the wheat harvest.

Favorable soil moisture for cotton and sorghum in the northeast.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): Favorable conditions for planting and developing corn throughout the region.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Dry conditions. Temperatures below to much below normal.

East: Dry conditions. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast...

West: Dry conditions or just a little light snow over northeast areas later Friday. Dry weather Saturday-Sunday. Dry conditions or just a little light snow Monday. Dry weather Tuesday-Wednesday. Dry conditions or just a little light snow Thursday. Temperatures variable Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

East: Dry weather Friday. Light snow Saturday. Dry weather Sunday. Chance of some light snow in the north Monday and in the east Tuesday. Chance of some light snow in the north and east later Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures below normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable west, below normal east.

Precipitation below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

Dry weather during the next 7 days. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above to much above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday, variable Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Mostly dry weather observed. Temperatures variable. Highs were in the low 90s in Rio Grande do Sul.

Forecast...

Mostly dry weather during the next 7 days. Temperatures variable through Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Scattered light showers with locally heavier. Temperatures variable.

Forecast:...

Daily episodes of scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next 7 days. Rainfall totals during the next 3 days will be moderate to heavy. Temperatures variable.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Dry conditions. Temperatures above normal with highs in the middle 90s f.

Forecast...

Dry conditions or just a few light showers Friday-Saturday. Dry weather Sunday-Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Wednesday. Dry weather Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal. Episodes of hot weather are expected.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Dry conditions. Temperatures variable.

Forecast...

Scattered light showers with locally heavier Friday. Dry weather Saturday-Monday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Tuesday. Scattered light showers with locally heavier Wednesday. Dry weather Thursday.

Temperatures variable Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday, variable Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday. Some episodes of hot weather are expected.

Mike Palmerino can be reached at mike.palmerino@dtn.com

(SK)

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