DTN Midday Grain Comments

All Grains Down at Midday

David M Fiala
By  David Fiala , DTN Contributing Analyst
(DTN photo by Nick Scalise)

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are higher at midday with the Dow futures up 75 points. The interest rate products are flat. The dollar index is 12 points higher. Energies are higher with crude up 60 cents. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle higher and hogs lower. Precious metals are lower with gold down $9.


Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday in slow trade; the trading range has only been 3 cents. The weekly export sales came in at 876,400 tons versus expectations of 600,000 to 900,000 metric tons. South American weather is not lending support today but the weather bias has been swinging on both sides this week, so many argue it favors continued sideways trade. On the March chart support is the contract low at $3.48 3/4 printed three weeks ago with resistance at the $3.54 20-day moving average then the 50-day moving average at 3.59. The one-month range is 15 cents and it appears we could test the low side of the week as we finish off the week in late trade today and tomorrow.


Soybean trade is 8 to 10 cents lower at midday with sideways momentum. Futures have been down 15 cents; this move puts trade right back into the middle of our 2 month trading range. Meal is down $4.50 at midday with soybean oil down 6-10 points. Outside markets are mixed. South American weather looks better in the 8-14 day. The weekly export sales came in at 2.015 million tons versus huge expectations of 1.0 to 1.5 million metric tons, yet the market is taking this as buy the rumor sell the fact off this positive demand number. Meal sales were good at 166,400 tons and bean oil at 21,000 tons. On the January chart support is at the $9.89 20-day moving average, which we traded below briefly, then the 100-day at $9.l81. Resistance is at the $9.96 10-day, then the $10.15 4-month high reached on Tuesday.


Wheat trade is down 3 to 6 cents at midday across the three markets. Spillover direction from row crops and a lack of fresh news is again noted for our midday direction. The weekly export sales were at 321,400 tons which is sad to say was in the upper half of trader expectations. The plains are turning colder with moisture looking to remain limited; this should limit downside. The Australian harvest should continue to push on this week with overall harvest pressure starting to fade. Black Sea values have remained steady to weak with Russia working to push more bushels out. Stats Canada raised production which only solidifies the huge global supply-side fundamentals. On the March Kansas City contract, chart support is the $4.18 3/4 fresh contract low scored this morning, with the 20-day at $4.35 noted chart resistance.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


David Fiala