DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a ridge over Greenland. This is a mild pattern in western Canada, cold central, mild/cool in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A strong ridge along the west coast of the U.S. and a broad trough extending from southwest to northeast across the U.S. The center of subtropical high pressure is located in the southwest atlantic and off the west central coast of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 8 days. Fair-poor agreement days 9-10. The U.S. model maintains the current pattern of a ridge in the western U.S. and a trough in the central and eastern U.S. through the period. The European model wants to put more trough into the western U.S. at the end of the period with some ridging developing in the eastern U.S. I could see this pattern developing at some point as it is more in line with the character of a La Nina winter pattern in the U.S. However we will stick with the current high amplitude blocking pattern as indicated by the U.S. model until we have model agreement. The intermediate (6z) run of the U.S. model also confirms the 00z run of the U.S. model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a strong ridge over Alaska and western Canada and the polar vortex over central and eastern Canada extending southward into central and eastern U.S. This will be a mild/warm temperature pattern for western Canada, cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge along the west coast of the U.S. and the southward extension of the polar vortex over the central and eastern U.S. The mean features remain further to the west today. This means a more variable temperature pattern for the plains and western Midwest and more below normal temperatures in the eastern Midwest. Precipitation should be minimal in the central U.S., mostly in the form of Alberta clipper lows diving southward into the trough but containing no gulf moisture.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the western Midwest, mostly below normal in the east. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...85 AT MELBOURNE FL

LOW WED..10 BELOW ZERO AT STANLEY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...BATON ROUGE LA .89 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement through 8 days. Fair-poor agreement days 9-10. The US model maintains the current pattern of a ridge in the western US and a trough in the central and eastern US through the period.

The European model wants to put more trough into the western US at the end of the period with some ridging developing in the eastern US. I could see this pattern developing at some point as it is more in line with the character of a La Nina winter pattern in the US. However we will stick with the current high amplitude blocking pattern as indicated by the US model until we have model agreement. The intermediate (6z) run of the US model also confirms the 00z run of the US model.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN): Limited rainfall and warmer temperatures depletes soil moisture increasing stress on crops. About half of the corn and soybean acreage has been planted at this point. This situation bears watching as La Nina tends to promote drought in central Argentina.

MIDWEST (CORN): Cold temperatures and episodes of light snow will impact the remaining harvest over Indiana and Ohio.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Dry weather and recent much above normal temperatures further depletes soil moisture and increases stress on winter wheat with crop ratings falling. A turn to colder weather this week will likely put the crop into dormancy which will be welcome as crop moisture needs will end.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS areas in Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Goias and Bahia):

Seasonal, tropical shower activity will favor development of soybeans at this time.

BRAZIL, SOUTH (SOYBEANS, CORN): A turn to drier weather favors the remaining soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul. However this situation bears watching as La Nina's can promote drought in southern Brazil.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Drier weather would benefit the wheat harvest but favors cotton and sorghum in the northeast.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): Favorable conditions for planting and developing corn throughout the region.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures variable.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast...

West: Dry weather Thursday. Dry conditions or just a little light snow over northeast areas later Friday. Dry weather Saturday-Sunday. Light snow favoring northern areas Monday. Mostly dry weather Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Thursday, variable Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, variable Tuesday-Wednesday.

East: Mostly dry weather Thursday-Friday. Light snow Saturday. Dry weather Sunday. Light snow later Monday and early Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a little light snow Wednesday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable west, below normal east.

Precipitation below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures variable

Forecast: Dry weather during the next 7 days. Temperatures below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above to much above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Scattered light to locally moderate showers. Temperatures variable.

Forecast...

Lingering light showers Thursday. Mostly dry weather Friday-Wednesday.

Temperatures variable Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier.

Temperatures variable.

Forecast:...

Daily episodes of scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next 7 days. Rainfall totals during the next 3 days will be moderate to heavy. Temperatures variable.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Dry conditions. Temperatures near to above normal with highs of 87-90 f.

Forecast...

Mostly dry weather into Friday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers later Friday and early Saturday. Dry weather Sunday-Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, variable Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Scattered light to locally moderate showers. Temperatures near to above normal with highs of 85-90 f.

Forecast...

Dry weather Thursday. Scattered light showers with locally heavier Friday.

Dry weather Saturday-Monday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Tuesday. Scattered light showers with locally heavier Wednesday. Temperatures variable Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, variable Monday, above normal Tuesday, variable Wednesday

Mike Palmerino can be reached at mike.palmerino@dtn.com

(SK)

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