Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Cooler conditions ahead for the Midwest, a drier trend for the Central and Southern Plains, limited moisture for Argentina, and heavy rains hitting southeast Australia's wheat crop are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

COLDER CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for warm weather that will keep the ground from freezing and more rain early this week, which will cause some concern for farmers in the eastern Midwest that have not finished the harvest. After that, a turn to much colder weather will firm the ground, and drier weather may allow some improvement in harvest conditions.

BLIZZARD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Strong winds and snow or rain changing to snow is forecast for the Dakotas and central to northern Minnesota today and tonight. A blizzard warning has been issued for the eastern Dakotas, west-central and northwest Minnesota. A winter storm warning is up for the balance of west-central and north Minnesota. There is increasing stress on livestock for much of the Northern Plains and northwest Midwest region. Impact to transport of hogs is also expected.

DRY FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Dry weather and much-above-normal temperatures at this time for the Central and Southern Plains depletes soil moisture and increases stress on winter wheat with crop ratings falling. A turn to colder weather this week will likely put the crop into dormancy and will be welcome as crop moisture needs will end.

VARIABLE BRAZIL RAIN

For Brazil in the Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, Goias and Bahia areas, seasonal, tropical showers will favor development of soybeans at this time.

As for southern Brazil, episodes of scattered showers and warm weather through major soybean and first-crop corn areas will favor development of these crops while causing only minor planting delays.

DRIER TREND FOR ARGENTINA

In Argentina, needed rainfall has occurred in key growing areas of Cordoba during the past week, easing concerns due to the prior drier and hotter trend in the area. Dryness remains of some concern in southern Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires at this time, especially with limited rains in the 10-day outlook.

HEAVY RAIN TO DAMAGE AUSTRALIA WHEAT

In Australia, heavy weekend rains hit Victoria and southern New South Wales wheat areas late last week and during the weekend. Maturing wheat is likely to be affected, which will lead to quality issues. Harvest progress should come to a halt due to this rain event. There is some risk for losses as well. The heaviest rainfall of 4 to more than 6 inches occurred in eastern Victoria, which is a minor growing area for wheat. However, key growing areas of southern New South Wales also received 2 to 4 inches of rain (50 to 100 millimeters). The western Victoria areas saw 1 inch or more of rain mainly late last week.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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