Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Caution over southern Brazil and Argentina rain forecasts and very heavy La Nina-feature rain headed for eastern Australia are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

PACIFIC LA NINA IN PLACE

Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures from South America to the International Date Line are measured at from 1-2 degrees Celsius below normal. Meanwhile, the Australia Bureau of Meteorology Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) calculation as of Friday, Dec. 1, is +10.40. Both the sea surface temperature and barometric pressure index values indicate a La Nina event now established in the Pacific.

PATTERN CHANGE FOR U.S.

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for mild temperatures across the Midwest through the first weekend of December. A notable change in the upper-air pattern is featured during the five- to 10-day period, with much colder conditions east of the Rockies. This colder trend will be mostly dry in the Midwest, offering favorable ground conditions for final harvest. Precipitation chances are greatest in the southeastern U.S.

DRY AGAIN FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Southern Plains crop areas continue with a very dry pattern through the next 10 days. This drier prospect means further loss of soil moisture in winter wheat areas. Winter wheat conditions are notably worse this year than a year ago, especially in Oklahoma and Texas. The extensive dryness is a La Nina feature.

VARIABLE BRAZIL RAIN

Brazil forecast rain is variable. Central areas are in line for moderate to heavy amounts through the next week, keeping soil moisture well-supplied. Southern areas have lighter amounts. The southern Brazil drier trend will be closely watched due to its relationship to a drier trend in La Nina years.

SHORT-TERM ARGENTINA RAIN

Argentina's central crop belt is receiving some beneficial rainfall this week. Notable showers have occurred in a very dry sector of the region in Cordoba state. These rains are easing concerns about crop stress due to the recent drier and hotter trend. The pattern turns drier over the next week, however. This drier trend will be closely tracked for signs of a drier trend for the heart of the Southern Hemisphere crop season. Pacific Ocean La Nina events tend to bring drier conditions to Argentina.

HEAVY RAIN TO DAMAGE AUSTRALIA WHEAT

Heavy rainfall is forecast to move into eastern Australia wheat areas during the weekend into early next week. The rain threatens extensive damage to wheat in South Australia and notable in Victoria and New South Wales states. Rainfall amounts of more than 300 millimeters, or close to 12 inches, are forecast during Friday alone in Victoria State. The heavy rain is a La Nina feature.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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