DTN Early Word Opening Livestock

Cattle Futures Likely to Open on a Mixed Basis

John Harrington
By  John Harrington , DTN Livestock Analyst
Connect with John:
(DTN file photo)

Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv $137.07 - .68*

Hogs: Stead-$1 LR Futures: 25-50 HR Lean Equiv $ 87.67 + .47**

* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue

** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

If should be a typically slow Tuesday in cattle country with neither bids nor asking prices well defined. Buying interest could start to take shape at midweek, but significant trade volume will probably be delayed until Thursday or Friday. Our guess is that asking prices will start out around $120 to $122 in the South and $192 to $195 in the North. Live and feeder futures should open on a mixed basis, linked to a combination of follow-through buying and long liquidation.

Hog buyers should resume work Tuesday with bids ranging from steady to $1 lower. Although slaughter got off to a slow start Monday, look for packers to push the pedal to the metal through the balance of the week. Lean futures seem staged to open moderately higher, boosted by residual buying interest and ideas of manageable fundamentals through the end of the year.

P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1) Live and feeder futures closed sharply higher on Monday. Spot December live closed a little above the 40-day moving average, and more than 400 points above the 100-day moving average. 1) The post-holiday beef trade got off on the wrong foot Monday. Significant losses in cutouts hardly suggested a strong recovery in red meat demand following the traditional white meat feast.
2) Although new showlists distributed in feedlot country Monday were mixed (i.e., larger in Kansas and Colorado, smaller in Texas and Nebraska), the overall offering appears to be smaller than last week. 2) For the week of Nov. 21, noncommercials aggressively reduced their net-long position in live cattle futures, down by 8,500 to a total of 130,000 contracts.
3) The short-term trend in lean hog futures has turned positive. The long-term market trend is positive as well, as is the structure of the market. 3) Despite Monday's pop in lean hog futures, prospects of large available hog supplies in the weeks ahead and questions whether pork demand will be adequate to clear the additional tonnage, continue to check late-year bullish enthusiasm.
4) The seasonal index reflects a strengthening price pattern into the expiration of the December contract and the recent advance in December futures is confirming that tendency. 4) For the week ending Nov. 21 noncommercial traders reduced their net-long position in lean hog futures by 5,400 contracts to 52,000.

OTHER MARKET SENSITIVE NEWS

CATTLE: (Maeil Business Newspaper) -- American beef that once had been shunned by Koreans over mad cow scare reclaimed the past glory of being responsible for more than half of imported beef that goes on Korean tables.

According to data from the Korea International Trade Association (KITA), U.S. beef imports during the January to October period this year amounted to $989 million, taking up 50.7 percent in the nation's imported beef market.

American beef took up more than 50 percent of the market for imports from 1993 to 2003 when its share in the local market hit an all-time high of 75.9 percent. In 2004, however, the share plummeted to 17.5 percent as the country banned the imports of U.S. beef in 2003 following mad cow disease outbreak in the U.S.

The country eased the ban from 2008 allowing in meat from cattle aged less than 30 months after holding several rounds of talks with the U.S. from 2006 to 2008.

The mad cow disease scare triggered a nation-wide protest in the early days of import resumption, but the market share of American beef has steadily increased since then. The gain is largely attributable to the free trade deal between Korea and the U.S. that took effect in 2012, according to market experts.

U.S. beef took up the largest share in the local imported beef market over the first 10 months of this year, after accounting for 37.4 percent in 2012, 42.2 percent in 2014 and 46.2 percent in 2016.

Meanwhile, the share of Australian brand fell to 43.6 percent during the same period, after reaching its peak of 78.8 percent in 2006.

HOGS: (GlobalMeatNews) -- Swine biology business Genesus Inc has acquired the French arm of Denmark-based Pork-Ex for an undisclosed sum.

Pork-Ex France is a small pig breeding company, employing 10 staff, based in the north-western city of Pacé, Brittany.

It was bought by Genesus to give the Canadian pig genetics outfit better access to the EU market, which is home to around 150 million pigs, according to Eurostat.

Genesus, based in Manitoba, Canada, is a pig breeder and genetics specialist and claims to have one of the largest pedigree pure-bred swine herds in the world.

Prior to the takeover, it had worked alongside Pork-Ex for over a year, collaborating on swine genetics in an attempt to make inroads into Europe's huge, albeit currently declining, pig industry.

During the year Genesus worked with Pork-Ex, it "became clear" that the business needed to launch a takeover of the firm's French subsidiary, Pork-Ex France, to secure "even better access" to Europe, Genesus said in a statement.

John Harrington can be reached at feelofthemarket@yahoo.com

Follow John Harrington on Twitter @feelofthemarket

(BAS)

P[L2] D[728x90] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R1] D[300x250] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
P[R2] D[300x250] M[320x50] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
DIM[1x3] LBL[] SEL[] IDX[] TMPL[standalone] T[]
P[R3] D[300x250] M[0x0] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]

John Harrington

John Harrington
Connect with John: