DTN Early Word Grains

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

Due to the holiday the grain and oilseed complex was closed overnight. Markets will open at 8:30 am (CT).

CME Globex Recap:

The grain and oilseed complex was closed overnight due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. However, other markets were open and trading, with rallies in Canadian canola and Malaysian palm oil hinting at a stronger Chicago bean oil, and possibly soybean, market Friday. Energies were mixed as the U.S. dollar index gained back only a small part of Wednesday's sharp sell-off.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 64.65 points (0.3%) lower at 23,526.18, the NASDAQ Composite gained 4.88 points (0.1%) to 6,867.36, and the S&P 500 dipped 1.95 points (0.1%) to 2,597.08 Tuesday. DJIA futures were 36 points higher early Friday morning. Asian markets were mixed with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 1.69 points, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 96.17 points (0.3%), and China's Shanghai Composite off 19.64 points (0.6%). European markets were trading mostly lower with London's FTSE 100 down 1.78 points, Germany's DAX down 6.49 points, and France's CAC 40 up 26.78 points (0.5%). The euro was 0.0008 higher at 1.1858 while the U.S. dollar index gained 0.02 to 93.14. December 30-year T-Bonds were 8/32 lower at 154'08 while December gold lost $0.90 to $1,291.30. Crude oil was $0.39 higher at $58.41 while Brent crude fell $0.21 to $63.34. Malaysian palm oil futures were higher overnight.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	If soybeans are able to close the week on a rally, corn could see some Black Friday spillover buying.	1)	Total marketing year shipments are expected to be bearish for corn, as of Thursday, November 16.
2)	Soybeans posted a strong rally Wednesday, before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, opening the door for possible follow-through buying interest.	2)	The more likely reaction to Wednesday's pre-holiday rally in soybeans is a Black Friday sell-off.
3)	Since commercial traders were selling Chicago wheat Wednesday, it is only logical this same group could be buyers again Friday.	3)	Total marketing year shipments of all wheat are expected to be bearish, as of Thursday, November 16.

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MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN The corn market closed fractionally higher Wednesday following a lightly traded session. Overnight activity in outside markets hint at possible follow-through buying, albeit light, in corn Friday. However, if soybeans come under pressure it would not be surprising to see corn finish the week on the defensive. Friday's session closes early at 12:05 (CT). It will be interesting to see how futures spreads spend the holiday-shortened session after light commercial selling was seen Wednesday. Weekly export sales and shipments (for the week ending Thursday, November 16) will be released at 7:30 (CT) Friday morning.

SOYBEANS Soybeans posted a strong rally Wednesday, opening the door to possible noncommercial selling on Black Friday. On the other hand, if soybeans are able to find support from higher overnight trade in global oilseed markets, it's possible a higher close could be seen. As of this writing, the greater risk seems to be to the downside given noncommercial traders already holding a net-long futures position and the continued short-term bearish view by commercial traders. Weekly export sales and shipment numbers (for the week ending Thursday, November 16) are expected to result in total shipments still considered bearish.

WHEAT Winter wheat markets closed mostly higher Wednesday, with only nearby Chicago contracts closing lower on commercial selling. Given the yo-yo approach to trading of this group recently, it would not be surprising to see Friday's holiday shortened session (winter markets close at 12:05 CT, Minneapolis spring wheat 12:15 CT) end with wheat rallying on commercial buying. Trade volume is expected to be light, though a wider trading range likely. Weekly export sales and shipment numbers (for the week ending Thursday, November 16) are set for release Friday morning, with total marketing year shipments for wheat still expected to be bearish.

DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.09	$0.00	-$0.36	Dec	$0.000
Soybeans:	$9.22	$0.08	-$0.76	Jan	$0.000
SRW Wheat:	$3.91	-$0.02	-$0.32	Dec	-$0.002
HRW Wheat:	$3.70	$0.02	-$0.51	Dec	$0.016
HRS Wheat:	$6.02	$0.01	-$0.25	Dec	$0.010

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

(BAS)

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