DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a blocking ridge up near the pole. A weak trough over Alaska. A weak ridge over northwest Canada. A trough over north-central and eastern Canada. And a ridge over southern Greenland.

This is a mild/warm pattern for western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. extending into western portions of the central U.S. And a trough over the eastern U.S.

The center of strong subtropical high pressure is located along the coast of northwest Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The US and European models are in good agreement through six days, fair-poor agreement days 7-10. We are leaning towards the intermediate run of the US model which is more of a compromise solution. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska. The polar vortex over northern Canada. And a blocking ridge over Greenland. This will be a variable temperature pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough off the west coast of the US. A ridge over the Rockies, Plains and Midwest And a trough along and off the east coast of the US. This will be a rather mild and dry pattern for the central US under the ridge aloft.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest.

Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see above normal temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...97 AT LAKE ELSINORE, VALLEY CENTER AND SAN PASQUAL VALLEY CA LOW THU...5 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...EUGENE OR 0.91 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement only for the first couple of days of the outlook period, fair to poor agreement later in the period. This is a tough call today but I am using a little more of today's US model as it concerns the end of the period.

The US model shows a short wave trough moving across the northern plains and dropping into the Midwest region next Wednesday and Thursday. This trough moves into the eastern Midwest Friday before lifting north into Canada Saturday. A secondary trough moves over the northern plains and the western Midwest at the end of this period. These troughs may produce some light precipitation but nothing that looks to serious. Temperatures vary with the passage of each trough but nothing too cold. The central and southern plains region is south of the primary storm track for much of this period and may see a variable temperature pattern but not much chance of meaningful rainfall, especially through the drier western growing areas.

The European model, if it were to verify instead, also shows the trough moving from the northern plains into the Midwest during the first couple of days of the period. However when the trough moves into the east it continues to deepen, leading to a cut off upper level low and deepening surface storm just off the east coast from the Carolinas next Friday and Saturday. As a result of this deepening trough the progression of systems in the central US slows down, delaying the second trough and forcing it northward. This allows for a warmer central US region late in the period and not much rainfall. The deepening of the trough off the east coast is mostly on the operational run of the European model. The ensemble mean of the model shows an open trough much further to the east. This is similar to the US model in the Atlantic but even the mean maps of the Euro shows more trough in the western US and more ridge in the eastern US.

This would be drier and warmer in the Midwest and the plains but wetter in the US west of the Rockies.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN): Mainly favorable conditions for the remaining harvest activities in the western Midwest during this week. Harvest progress likely continued slow in the eastern Midwest early this week due to heavy rains last weekend. Conditions for the harvest should be improving at this time.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Favorable conditions for developing winter wheat over the northern and eastern areas. A drying trend continues with some increase in stress likely over western and especially southwestern growing areas...especially with the very warm temperatures currently in the area.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS, CORN): A favorable rainfall pattern for developing soybeans and first crop corn in central Brazil at this time.

Wet weather will maintain favorable soil moisture conditions for early planted crops in Parana but may cause slow downs to planting. Mostly favorable conditions for planting and early development in RGDS at this time.

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN,SUNFLOWER): Mostly favorable conditions at this time for planting and development of corn, soybeans and sunflower. Rainfall averaged near to well above normal during October but the November rainfall has averaged well below normal to date in parts of Cordoba, Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires. Dryness is becoming of increasing concern, especially in Cordoba and western Santa Fe where it has also been hot at times.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): The region had turned hot and dry again early this week. However, scattered showers have returned to the region at the end of the week with more showers possible during the weekend. Soil moisture and showers should favor development of the earlier planted crops in the east and some central areas. In the west more rain is still needed to ensure favorable conditions for planting, germination and early development. Showers during the past 48 hours and the showers in the forecast are more for the east and less for the west.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 48 hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal Wednesday, above to well above normal Thursday.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today through Sunday. Temperatures average well above normal, warmest today with average readings 20 to 30 degrees above normal.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Chance for light rain or showers Wednesday, favoring central or southern locations. Temperatures average well above normal Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

East: Mostly dry today through Sunday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Chance for sprinkles or light showers during Wednesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal.

Precipitation near to mostly below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 48 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal Wednesday, well above normal Thursday. The high temperatures yesterday were mostly 69 to 78F. Normal highs for this time of year would be 42 to 62F, north to south.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry tomorrow and Sunday. Temperatures average well above normal today, above to well above normal Saturday, well above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and early Tuesday. A few showers and thundershowers are possible from late Tuesday or Tuesday night into early Wednesday. These appear to be most likely over central and eastern Kansas but could extend northward to southeast Nebraska or a little south into northern Oklahoma. Temperatures average well above normal Monday, somewhat cooler Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal early in the period, above normal later in the period. Precipitation near to below normal.

Brazil...Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias (Soybeans)

Summary: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers favoring Mato Grosso and Goias during the 48 hour period. Drier in MGDS during this time.

Temperatures averaged near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Forecast: Scattered afternoon or evening showers mainly in norther Mato Grosso and Goias today. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers during the weekend. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Scattered showers and thundershowers Monday into Tuesday. Somewhat drier Wednesday. Temperatures turn cooler during this period.

Brazil...Parana, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande Do Sul (Corn, Soybeans)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 48 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Scattered showers and thundershowers during the weekend period look to favor Parana. Temperatures average above normal today, somewhat cooler during the weekend.

Light to moderate showers and thundershowers in Parana, drier in RGDS, during Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Central/South Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa (Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower)

Summary: Mostly dry Wednesday. A few light showers have developed overnight, mainly in Cordoba and Santa Fe. Temperatures averaged near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday...except in the far south areas where it was cooler Thursday. Highs yesterday averaged 88-100F (31-38C) in Cordoba, 86-96F

(30-35C) in Santa Fe and 81-88F (27-31C) in northern Buenos Aires.

Forecast: Dry or with only lingering light showers in central areas this morning. Dry Saturday. A few light showers may redevelop during Sunday.

Temperatures should be somewhat cooler today, especially south and east areas.

Warmer Saturday, warm to hot Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier in western areas during Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Temperatures may be somewhat cooler Monday but they should turn hotter again Tuesday or Wednesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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