DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a series of troughs across Alaska and northern Canada and a blocking ridge over western Greenland. This is a cool/cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. A trough in the eastern U.S. and a ridge on the western atlantic. The center of strong subtropical high pressure is located along the coast of northwest Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days, fair agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a blocking ridge to the north of Alaska. The polar vortex over northern Canada and a blocking ridge over Greenland. This will be a variable temperature pattern for western Canada, cool/cold central, variable in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a low to moderate amplitude flow with embedded disturbances extending from the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska across the U.S.This will be a dry pattern for the central U.S. due to the fast movement of systems. It will be a variable temperature pattern. Milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest.Precipitation below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Rainfall below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...93 AT RIVERSIDE CA AND LAKE ELSINORE CA LOW TUE...3 BELOW ZERO AT 4 MILES SOUTHEASET OF BREDETTE MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...SEATTLE WA 0.71 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair agreement during the outlook period.

I favor a blend between the models today. The models continue to show a weak trough moving over the northern plains Monday. This trough deepens over the western Midwest Tuesday with an intensifying surface low. The US model continues to be somewhat deeper and a little further northeast with the upper level trough and the surface storm as it moves over the western Midwest Tuesday. The US model continues to move this trough northeast into Canada and weakens it rapidly. The European model is slower with the upper level trough as it is still over the central Midwest Wednesday. I am using a little more of today's US model as it concerns this feature but with some blend with the European model on the strength and speed of movement.

The mean maps at 8-10 days continue to show above normal heights over the north pole and northern Greenland. The Euro also continues with the north Atlantic ridge merging with the north pole ridge while the US model shows a split between the features. The models both show the polar vortex centered just to the north of Hudson Bay Canada. We also see on both models a ridge from the northeast US into the western Atlantic and a short wave trough from the south-central or southeast plains to the northwest or the north-central Midwest. We also see above normal heights over the western US.

This is mostly an above normal temperature pattern in the US, although the trough in the US may mean a brief period of somewhat colder conditions. The polar trough in Canada should be the focus for colder weather in Canada but with the ridging so far to the north of this trough the potential for very cold weather breaking off and moving into the US region is not that high.

Precipitation chances may increase with the Midwest/southeast plains trough but mostly east of the trough which means mostly east of the Midwest and Delta regions.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN): Mainly favorable conditions for the remaining harvest activities in the western Midwest during this week. Harvest progress continues slow in the eastern Midwest early this week due to weekend heavy rains.

Conditions for the harvest should improve with time.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Favorable conditions for developing winter wheat at this time. Soil moisture due to early season rainfall will favor crop development. However, a drying trend in the region does bear watching as we head into the winter dormancy period.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS, CORN): A favorable rainfall pattern for planting and developing soybeans in central Brazil after earlier hot, dry weather.

Weekend rains will maintain favorable soil moisture conditions for early planted crops from Parana to Rio Grande Do Sul but may cause slow downs to seasonal fieldwork.

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN,SUNFLOWER): Mostly favorable conditions at this time for planting and development of corn, soybeans and sunflower. Rainfall averaged near to well above normal during October but the November rainfall has averaged well below normal to date in parts of Cordoba, Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires. This is being watched. Light rain was reported in some of the dry area Monday night but more rain is needed, especially in western areas. The chance for heavier rains in the area looks to be on the low side during the next 7 days.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): The region has turned hot and dry again early this week. Soil moisture should favor continued planting in the east and early development. However, in the west more rain is still needed to ensure favorable conditions for planting, germination and early development. A weak cold front is in the area today with a somewhat stronger cold front expected at the end of the week. There is likely to be additional beneficial shower activity for east and some central maize areas and most sugarcane areas later this week. The west may see only light and scattered showers during at that time.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday morning, near to mostly below normal during the afternoon.

East: Light precipitation, less then 0.10 inch, northeast Illinois, central and north Indiana, southern Michigan and much of Ohio yesterday afternoon or night.

Temperatures above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today and Thursday. Dry or with only very light precipitation in northern areas Friday. Temperatures average below normal today, above normal Thursday, well above normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry today and Thursday. Dry or with only a few very light showers developing late Friday or during Friday night. Temperatures average below normal today, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average above normal Saturday, near normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal.

Precipitation near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and below normal east today, above normal Thursday and Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period but most days will range from near to above normal. Precipitation below normal.

Brazil...Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias (Soybeans)

Summary: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers, favoring Mato Grosso and MGDS during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring Mato Grosso and Goias today. Showers may linger in the north, drier otherwise, during Thursday.

Mainly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal today and Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers will be in the region Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average near to below normal.

Brazil...Parana, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande Do Sul (Corn, Soybeans)

Summary: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers occurred yesterday from extreme northern areas of RGDS northward through Parana. Drier elsewhere in RGDS during this time. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

A few light showers with locally heavier in RGDS during Saturday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier in Parana Saturday and Sunday. Mainly dry in RGDS Sunday. Mainly dry all areas Monday. Temperatures average near to above normal Saturday, somewhat cooler again Sunday and Monday.

Central/South Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa (Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal west, below normal central and east.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Thursday. Chance for scattered light showers with locally heavier Friday, favoring Cordoba and Santa Fe. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal Thursday, near to below normal south and above normal north Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday and most of Sunday. Scattered light showers, favoring central and north areas, during Sunday night or early Monday. Drier again later Monday. Dry Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal Saturday and Sunday, near to below normal south and above normal north Monday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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