DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...90 AT DAVIS-MONTHAN AFB AZ, KINGSVILLE NAS TX AND BORREGO SPRINGS CA LOW THU...9 AT WILLOW CITY ND AND LOGAN MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...SAN FRANCISCO CA 1.64 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement for only the first day or two of the outlook period, fair to poor agreement during the 8-10 day time frame. I am leaning in the direction of today's European model but due to day to day and model to model changes the past 3 days this is issued with much uncertainty.

The European model maintains the high latitude ridge between northeast Canada and Greenland while also merging this ridge with a new ridge coming over the pole from Asia. As a result of this ridge the polar trough is expected to intensify again over southeast Canada and the eastern US region during the 8 to

10 day time frame. This suggests another cold outbreak would become possible at the end of next week or next weekend, favoring the eastern US which should also include the eastern Midwest region. Northwest flow over the Midwest for much of the time likely means below normal precipitation chances, even in areas of the eastern Midwest that have been very wet during the past month or so. The model also has the western ridge consolidating over the Rockies region at 8-10 days.

This likely means warmer weather in the western US which may also move northward into the southwest Canadian Prairies.

The US model now shows the high latitude ridge over northeast Canada, western Greenland and the southeast Arctic circle. This ridge is not as strong as the ridge that the model had over the north Atlantic and Greenland yesterday or as strong as the European model shows today. The US model shows more of a split polar trough today with one piece over the north Atlantic where yesterday we saw a ridge and the other piece between Alaska and the North Pole. The model shows more of a west to east flow over the northern and central US during the

8-10 day time frame, some ridging in the southwest and a weak trough near the east coast. This model is also relatively dry but not as cold looking as the European model.

I favor the European model because it is slightly more consistent with its run of yesterday but also because it is a pattern we have recently seen and also it does show up on several of the Ensemble members of today's US model at

240 hours.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN): Mainly favorable conditions for the remaining harvest activities in the western Midwest during this week. Precipitation in the east will keep this portion of the harvest slower, especially in Indiana and Ohio with additional heavier rains likely at the end of the week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Favorable conditions for developing winter wheat at this time. Soil moisture due to early season rainfall will favor crop development. However, a drying trend in the region does bear watching as we head into the winter dormancy period.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS, CORN): A favorable rainfall pattern for planting and developing soybeans in central Brazil after earlier hot, dry weather.

A break in the rainy pattern over southern areas that began during the weekend continued early this week. This may have helped improve conditions for planting and early development. Rain returned to the area during the past 24 hors, maintaining adequate to surplus soil moisture but slowing seasonal field work, especially over Parana.

ARGENTINA (CORN,SOYBEAN,SUNFLOWER): Mostly favorable conditions at this time for planting and development of corn, soybeans and sunflower although drier weather during the next 7 days will deplete soil moisture. Also recent hot temperatures and very windy conditions have also served to deplete soil moisture in the central growing belt.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE,SUGARCANE): Moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms occurred through southeast and east-central growing areas during the past couple of days. This includes most of the sugarcane growing region, both irrigated and non-irrigated. Moderate rains reached to the south-central and southeast part of the key maize growing region but only light and scattered showers occurred elsewhere in the maize belt. More rain would be welcome in western maize areas to support development of recently planted fields and encourage additional planting activities. Soil moisture should be adequate for current needs of maize elsewhere in the region.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday, except in the far west areas where it warmed to above normal yesterday afternoon.

East: Mostly dry or with only a little very light precipitation in northeast areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: A few light showers may develop during this afternoon. Light to locally moderate precipitation is possible in east and south Iowa and northern Missouri tonight or early Saturday. Drier again later Saturday. Dry Sunday. Temperatures average above to well above normal today, cooler Saturday but still likely above normal, below normal early Sunday but warming to above normal again later in the day.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

East: Chance for showers developing later today, favoring western and northern areas. Episodes of rain, showers and thunderstorms tonight and during Saturday.

Drier Saturday night and mostly dry Sunday. Rainfall potential appears moderate to heavy from eastern Illinois through Indiana, Ohio and Michigan and mostly light to the west. Temperatures average above normal today and Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to trend somewhat warmer during the first couple days of the period before turning colder again later in the period...possibly much colder. Precipitation below normal west, near to below normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged above normal west and south, near to above normal northeast.

Forecast: Mainly dry today. A little light shower activity may occur tonight or very early Saturday. Dry otherwise Saturday. Dry Sunday. Temperatures average well above normal today, cooler Saturday but still above normal, near to below normal early Sunday, above normal again later Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday, above to near normal Tuesday, above normal west and near to below normal east Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period, especially through eastern areas where readings may drop below normal later in the period. Precipitation below normal.

Brazil...Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias (Soybeans)

Summary: Scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier through MGDS and western areas of Mato Grosso during the past 24 hours. Only a few isolated showers elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures above normal with highs mostly 89-96F yesterday.

Forecast: Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms develop in the south and west and spread into eastern areas during today through Sunday.

Temperatures continue at mostly above normal levels today but it should turn cooler during the weekend, especially late in the weekend.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers will be in the region Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average near normal.

Brazil...Parana, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande Do Sul (Corn, Soybeans)

Summary: Light to moderate showers with locally heavier through western and northern RGDS during the past 24 hours. Moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers through Santa Catarina, western and northern Parana during this time. Temperatures averaged near to above normal yesterday.

Forecast: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms through Parana today and tonight, dry in RGDS during this time. Rain or showers and thunderstorms may linger in east and north Parana tomorrow. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures turn cooler during this period, especially through southern areas.

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Monday and Tuesday. A few light showers north, mainly dry south, during Wednesday.

Temperatures vary somewhat during this period.

Central Argentina: Cordoba, Santa Fe, northern Buenos Aires (Corn and Soybeans)

Summary: Mostly dry or with only a few very light showers through the northeast part of the area yesterday. A little light rain has developed in southern areas overnight. Temperatures averaged near to above normal in the west, below normal in the east.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers or a little drizzle through southern Buenos Aires today through Sunday. Temperatures average below normal south and above normal north today, below normal Saturday, near to below normal south and near to above normal north Sunday.

Chance for scattered light showers through the central growing areas Monday.

Mainly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures turn somewhat cooler Monday and Tuesday, warmer again Wednesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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