DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Nearby Live Cattle Futures Close Week With Sharp Losses

John Harrington
By  John Harrington , DTN Livestock Analyst
(DTN file photo)


The cash cattle market was generally quiet Friday with just a few cleanup deals noted. A few dressed deals were reported at $190, $2 lower, while live trade was at $122, also $2 lower than Wednesday's major market test. The National hog base closed off $0.17 compared with the Prior Day settlement ($54-$60.75, weighted average $59.70). From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Dec LC off $6.73; Feb LC off $5.00; Nov FC off $2.40; Jan FC off $4.35; Dec LH off $2.63; Feb LH off $1.72. Corn futures closed several cents higher, supported by late-week short-covering following Thursday's confirmation of record yield per acre. The stock market closed mixed with the Dow off 39 and the Nasdaq essentially unchanged.


Futures closed mostly sharply lower, off 190 to up 10. December through April suffered triple-digit losses, pressured by aggressive long-liquidation and technical-selling. Note that spot December closed at its lowest point since Oct. 25 (i.e. 120.57), far below the bullish chart gap created in late October. Beef cut-outs: higher on choice and sharply lower on select (choice, $213.85 up $1.11, select $195.79 off $3.79) on light-to-moderate demand and offerings (48 loads of choice cuts, 23 loads of select cuts, 03 loads of trimmings, 16 loads of coarse grinds).


Steady to $2 lower. Monday will be typically slow as packers spend the morning assessing new showlists. We expect the midmonth offering to be about steady with last week.


Futures closed mixed, off 67 to up 25. Trading here was a bit on the choppy side through the session, probably more a function of light trade volume than sliding opinion. Feeder bulls were clearly chastened this week by the sell-off in deferred live futures. On the other hand, commercial buyers had to be more confident in the project following Thursday's bearish corn report. CME cash feeder index: 11/09: $159.37, up $0.39.


Futures closed mostly higher up, 62 to off 70. Spot December continued to erode in the face of plentiful market hog numbers and stubbornly lower packer bids. Specifically, the lead month closed at $62.47, its lowest settlement since Oct. 13. Note that February is now anticipating an $8 rally from the lows of December, a comeback that seems a little on the rich side looking at recent history. Pork cut-out: $81.92 (FOB Plant) up $0.60. CME cash lean 11/08: $67.94, off $0.41 (DTN Projected lean index for 11/09: $67.47, off $0.47).


Steady to $1 lower. Look for cash hog traders to resume work on Monday with steady to $1 lower bids.

For more from John, see http://www.feelofthemarket.com/…


John Harrington