DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

Fertilizer Prices Increase First Week of November

Todd Neeley
By  Todd Neeley , DTN Staff Reporter
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UAN32 led the way with an 8% price increase from one month ago. (DTN chart)

OMAHA (DTN) -- Five of the eight major fertilizers showed increases for the first week in November 2017 compared to one month earlier, according to retailers surveyed by DTN.

UAN32 led the way with an average price increase of about 8% to $262 per ton. The average price of urea came in 2% higher at around $330/ton. DAP's average price also increased by about 2% to $434/ton. The average prices for MAP and anhydrous saw 1% increases compared to last month, at $455 and $401/ton, respectively.

The average prices for potash and UAN28 remained unchanged compared to last month, at $348 and $208/ton, respectively. Just one fertilizer, 10-34-0, saw its average price drop by about 2% this month at $405/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.36/lb.N, anhydrous $0.24/lb.N, UAN28 $0.37/lb.N and UAN32 $0.41/lb.N.

Three of the eight major retail fertilizers are now lower compared to one year earlier, all by double digits. Anhydrous and UAN both are 15% lower from a year ago, while 10-34-0 is 10% less expensive. UAN32 and DAP remain unchanged, while potash, urea and MAP are higher by 11%, 3% and 1%, respectively.

In an analysis of fertilizer prices last week, http://bit.ly/…, agriculture economist David Widmar said producers should keep an eye on nitrogen in 2018.

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"Anhydrous ammonia prices have fallen 23% from spring prices, but smaller declines have been observed with other nitrogen fertilizers," he wrote.

"Urea prices have declined 6% while the price of 28% liquid nitrogen has declined 13%. The non-uniform decline in prices has created an interesting price dynamic among sources of nitrogen. Overall, urea and 28% prices are higher priced than anhydrous ammonia (the relative prices since 2010 are greater than 1.0). Since 2010, per unit of nitrogen prices of urea have been 1.20 times the price of anhydrous ammonia. Meanwhile, the average price for liquid 28% was 1.36 times anhydrous ammonia prices."

Widmar said throughout 2016, however, relative prices were below averages. By 2017, those prices returned to average levels, he said.

"In recent months, however, the price relationship has increased considerably as anhydrous ammonia prices have fallen," Widmar said.

"The price of urea was 1.45 times anhydrous ammonia prices in October. This was the highest level since 2012. Liquid 28% nitrogen reached a seven-year high of 1.66 times in late August. These price relationships will be important to monitor into 2018."

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton):

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Oct 31-Nov 4 2016 436 451 314 319
Nov 28-Dec 2 2016 435 445 318 331
Dec 26-30 2016 431 443 321 336
Jan 23-27 2017 429 443 322 347
Feb 20-24 2017 433 452 332 359
Mar 20-24 2017 438 464 338 356
Apr 17-21 2017 438 466 339 352
May 15-19 2017 437 471 340 350
Jun 12-16 2017 437 470 341 338
Jul 10-14 2017 436 467 340 321
Aug 7-11 2017 434 462 339 311
Sep 4-8 2017 431 458 338 302
Oct 2-6 2017 425 453 348 323
Oct 27-Nov 3 2017 434 455 348 330
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Oct 31-Nov 4 2016 452 471 244 262
Nov 28-Dec 2 2016 447 465 217 256
Dec 26-30 2016 437 466 217 254
Jan 23-27 2017 436 480 235 268
Feb 20-24 2017 440 490 241 276
Mar 20-24 2017 441 507 248 280
Apr 17-21 2017 437 509 247 280
May 15-19 2017 436 510 248 283
Jun 12-16 2017 435 500 246 278
Jul 10-14 2017 431 451 235 268
Aug 7-11 2017 440 419 224 258
Sep 4-8 2017 418 413 215 248
Oct 2-6 2017 413 399 208 243
Oct 27-Nov 3 2017 405 401 208 262

Todd Neeley can be reached at todd.neeley@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @toddneeleyDTN

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Todd Neeley