DTN Early Word Grains
Another Quiet Start to the Day
December corn was unchanged, January soybeans were 3 cents lower, and December Chicago (SRW) wheat was 1 cent higher.
CME Globex Recap:The grain and oilseed complex didn't do much overnight with contracts sitting quietly after posting 1 cent to 2-cent trading ranges through early Friday morning. Even financial markets were relatively quiet with the U.S. dollar index showing little emotion after President Trump picked Jerome Powell to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman Thursday afternoon. The energy complex was stronger again, with softs mostly higher in quiet trade.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 81.25 points (0.3%) higher at 23,516.26, the NASDAQ Composite lost 1.59 points to 6,714.94, and the S&P 500 added 0.49 point to 2,579.85 Thursday. DJIA futures were 37 points higher early Friday morning. Asian markets closed mostly higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 closed, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 84.97 points (0.3%), and China's Shanghai Composite off 11.57 points (0.3%). European markets were trading mostly higher with London's FTSE 100 up 20.00 points (0.3%), Germany's DAX adding 48.49 points (0.4%) and France's CAC 40 off 0.54 point. The euro was 0.0008 lower at 1.1650 while the U.S. dollar index gained 0.06 to 94.78. December 30-year T-Bonds were 2/32 higher at 153'17 while December gold dipped $2.20 to $1,275.90. Crude oil was $0.29 higher at $54.83 while Brent crude gained $0.21 to $60.83. China's Dalian soybean futures were higher and Malaysian palm oil futures were lower again overnight.
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | With newly harvested bushels being tucked away in on-farm storage, the corn market might not see pre-weekend commercial selling Friday. | 1) | Trends on corns monthly (long-term), weekly (intermediate-term), and daily (short-term) charts all remain sideways-to-down. |
| 2) | Momentum indicators would suggest January soybeans could see a bullish breakout on its weekly chart in the near future. | 2) | Soybeans remains vulnerable to increased selling from both commercial and noncommercial traders as Friday progresses. |
| 3) | Winter wheat looks to have pulled off another bearish head-fake earlier this week, slowly building short-term bullish momentum. | 3) | Winter wheat's long-term fundamentals remain bearish, limiting potential noncommercial buying interest. |
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MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN December corn once again saw an uptick in trade volume (futures only) overnight with 17,100 contracts changing hands through early Friday morning. Though this amounted to a trading range of only 1 cent, it could indicate Friday's session gets more active. Technically there isn't much that's new in corn, with sideways-to-down patterns seen on short-term (daily), intermediate-term (weekly), and long-term (monthly) charts. Still, the Dec contract is pressing toward the high-side, short-term, with trendline resistance calculated near $3.52 Friday. Fundamentally the market will continue to watch the slow progress of harvest as another weekend moves in. With much of the corn getting tucked away into on-farm storage, pre-weekend commercial selling isn't expected to be seen.
SOYBEANS Chicago soybeans were showing losses early Friday morning after a relatively quiet overnight session. Jan beans posted a trading range of 2 1/2 cents on trade volume (futures only) of 7,000 contracts. Technically it's Jan's weekly chart that looks to be the most interesting heading into the weekend, with a large triangle consolidation pattern nearing completion (for more information, see DTN's updated Technically Speaking blog later Friday morning). Fundamentally there is little change in the market with commercial interests heading to the sidelines overnight, allowing noncommercial selling to move the market lower. This pattern could continue Friday as some cash sales of newly harvested bushels are sold. Delivery of 49 contracts was reported against the November issue, putting the total at 196 contracts.
WHEAT Winter wheat markets were higher early Friday morning following a quiet overnight session. December Chicago wheat posted a 1 1/2-cent trading range on solid volume (futures only) of 10,100 contracts. The move to a new contract low earlier this week is beginning to look like a normal head-fake in the wheat market, with contracts slowly gaining bullish momentum since Tuesday. However, if winter markets are to rally noncommercial buying has to be able to push the weight of bearish long-term fundamentals up the hill.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.09 | $0.03 | -$0.41 | Dec | $0.003 |
| Soybeans: | $9.15 | $0.09 | -$0.85 | Jan | $0.006 |
| SRW Wheat: | $3.91 | $0.10 | -$0.35 | Dec | $0.023 |
| HRW Wheat: | $3.64 | $0.14 | -$0.62 | Dec | $0.038 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.90 | $0.08 | -$0.33 | Dec | -$0.010 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom
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