DTN Closing Livestock Comments

CME Cattle Futures Witness Bullish Explosion

John Harrington
By  John Harrington , DTN Livestock Analyst
(DTN file photo)


Though difficult to document, country psychology seemed to grow through the day as feedlot managers cheered on the board's impressive performance. We did see a few ready steers and heifers in parts of the South bring prices around $115. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.20 higher ($59-$66, weighted average $65.25). Corn futures closed about a penny and a half higher, yet staying within a narrow and unexciting price range. The stock market closed higher with the Dow up 167 points and the Nasdaq better by 11.


Live prices soared Tuesday in the wake of Monday's missed opportunity for supply bears. Contracts advanced by no less than 195 to 295 points with February through June setting new highs. Given how the large deferred premiums ignored the larger-than-expected September placement Monday, demand bulls wasted absolutely no time in pushing prices even higher. Soon-to-be-spot December closed the session fully $8 above the last established cash market. Beef cut-outs: significantly higher, up $0.88 (choice: $200.13) to $1.64 (select: $192.69) with moderate to fairly demand and light to moderate offerings (64 loads of choice cuts, 25 loads of select cuts, 19 loads of trimmings, 26 loads of ground beef).


Steady to $2 higher. Packer inquiry could start to take shape at midweek. Though significant trade volume will probably be delayed until Thursday or Friday.


Feeders caught the same bullish fever as their live counterparts. Prices here settled 150 to 412 higher. January set a new contract high. With Tuesday's surge forward, the first three issues have now gone premium to the cash index. CME cash feeder index: 10/23: $154.59, off $0.10.


Although advancing at a slower price, hog traders seemed to agree with the bullish assessment of the cattle complex (i.e., demand trumps supply). Looking past record chain speed and building stocks of total meat in cold storage, lean futures settled 30 to 70 higher. Carcass value closed moderately higher, supported by all primals except the loin. Pork cut-out: $76.46, up $0.66. CME cash lean index for 10/20: $65.23, up $1.02 (DTN Projected lean index for 10/23: $66.10, up $0.87).


Steady to $1 higher. Opening cash bids in the morning are likely to be steady/firm.

John Harrington can be reached at feelofthemarket@yahoo.com

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John Harrington