DTN Midday Grain Comments

General Comments

The U.S. stock market is mixed this morning with the Dow up 30 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 22 higher. Energies are higher with crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $4.50.

CORN

Corn trade is 4 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade rebounding off a test of the lows this morning, getting within a half penny before reversing with harvest expanding in the west, while the central and east will remain slow near term. Ethanol margins continue to improve for blenders while producer margins remain stable with futures firming along with corn this morning. Basis should see harvest pressure, while carry remains at wide levels with steady to slightly firmer action on the carry this morning. Weather looks to remain open for the west with rains moving back into the center of the country. Corn moisture has been one of the biggest near term concerns as it has stayed stubbornly high in some areas keeping the harvest focus on soybeans. The weekly progress report should show better harvest progress but still well behind normal, while export inspections remain weak at 614,075 metric tons. On the December chart support is at the $3.42 1/2 low with resistance at the $3.54 50-day moving average.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is flat to 4 cents higher at midday with trade holding the 200-day level as support with harvest hitting the home stretch, especially in the west. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points higher. South American weather is expected to ease the drier areas in the second week to boost planting progress. Weekly crop progress should show harvest progress catch back up closer to normal, with weekly export inspections improving again to 2.562 million metric tons. On the November chart, trade is above all the major moving averages, with the 200-day at $9.75 support, with resistance the recent high at $10.03.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 5 to 10 cents higher at midday with active trade continuing with the market rebounding off the test of the contract lows overnight. The dollar is moving back towards the 94 level on the index. U.S. exports have been slowed lately as Black Sea origin continues to dominate world movement. Australia will see more focus coming forward as well as the growing season progresses with the FAS indicating harvest potential down as much as 40% from last year with some flood damage concerns in South America. Planting progress should be closer to normal on the report this afternoon, with export inspections coming in low at 169,750 metric tons. On the December Kansas City support is the lows at $4.20 with the 10-day at $4.29 as first resistance, which we are just above at midday.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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