DTN Early Word Grains

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

December corn was 1 cent higher, November soybeans were 2 cents higher, and December Chicago (SRW) wheat was fractionally higher.

CME Globex Recap:

Global equity markets will mark the 30th anniversary of Black Monday by watching the DJIA as it sits above 23,000. Overnight trade showed DJIA futures considerably lower, following world stock markets. The grain and oilseed complex was mixed, led by a modest rally in soybeans. Other commodity sectors were mixed with softs higher, energies lower and metals mixed. The U.S. dollar index was under light pressure early Thursday morning.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 160.16 points (0.7%) higher at 23,157.60, the NASDAQ Composite added 0.56 point to 6,624.22, and the S&P 500 gained 1.90 points to 2,561.26 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 82 points lower early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed mostly lower with Japan's Nikkei up 85.47 points (0.4%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling 552.67 points (1.9%), and China's Shanghai Composite down 11.62 points (0.3%). European markets were trading lower with London's FTSE 100 down 21.57 points (0.3%), Germany's DAX losing 73.34 points (0.6%), and France's CAC 40 off 22.76 points (0.4%). The euro was 0.0026 higher at 1.1813 while the U.S. dollar index dipped 0.11 to 93.31. December 30-year T-Bonds were 12/32 higher at 153'13 while December gold gained $4.10 to $1,287.10. Crude oil was $0.70 lower at $51.34 while Brent crude lost $0.69 to $57.46. China's Dalian soybean and Malaysian palm oil futures were both lower again overnight.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	Spillover buying from soybeans could provide support to corn.	1)	The strong carry in corn's forward curve continues to reflect a bearish long-term view of supply and demand.
2)	November soybeans could break out of its bullish consolidation pattern Thursday.	2)	It's possible soybeans could see increased commercial selling as the weekend nears.
3)	Winter wheat contracts continue to hold above key lows.	3)	Given winter wheat's bearish forward curves, it still would not be surprising to see Chicago and Kansas City move to new lows.

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN December corn posted another fascinating overnight session with a range of 1 cent on trade volume of less than 5,000 contracts. Meanwhile the daily reading on its volatility index fell to 14% Wednesday. Yep, that's about it for corn. There just isn't much new to talk about. Traders have already shown they aren't interested in harvest delays. They certainly won't be interested in Thursday morning's weekly export sales and shipment numbers for the week ending Thursday, Oct. 12, and they don't seem to care all that much about weather forecasts for this upcoming weekend. So the market continues to grind lower on the general idea supplies remain large. However, if soybeans spark to life as this week nears its end, corn could ride its coattails similar to what it did late last week.

SOYBEANS November soybeans closed fractionally lower Wednesday, posting three down days against its current minor (short-term) uptrend. This move looks to be a bullish flag consolidation pattern on the contract's daily chart. Based on the technical theory that "flags (and pennants) fly at half-mast," a move beyond upside trend line resistance for the pattern calculated at $9.86 1/4 Thursday the contract could rejoin its uptrend to move to $10.30. The overnight high, through early Thursday morning, was $9.87 3/4. Fundamentally, there is little fresh news, with weekly export sales and shipment numbers (for the week ending Thursday, Oct. 12) expected to be neutral-to-bullish.

WHEAT Winter wheat contracts were unchanged to fractionally higher early Thursday as both December Chicago and Kansas City inch toward a bullish turn on their respective daily charts. For now, support is at contract lows of $4.22 1/2 and $4.20 respectively. Fundamentally, there is little change in the wheat complex as a whole, with planting progress of next year's winter wheat crop continuing while weekly export sales and shipments (for the week ending Thursday, Oct. 12) are expected to be neutral at best.

	DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.04	-$0.02	-$0.44	Dec	-$0.002
Soybeans:	$9.06	-$0.01	-$0.78	Nov	-$0.002
SRW Wheat:	$3.92	-$0.04	-$0.38	Dec	$0.007
HRW Wheat:	$3.54	-$0.05	-$0.74	Dec	$0.006
HRS Wheat:	$5.70	$0.00	-$0.40	Dec	$0.006

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

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