DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a series of troughs across Alaska, northern Canada and southern Greenland and a ridge over northern Greenland. This is a mild/warm pattern for mosy of Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A west to east flow across southern Canada and the northern U.S. and a weak trough over the southeast U.S. The center of subtropical high pressure is off the northwest coast of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 5 days, fair-good agreement days 6-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a weak ridge over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a ridge over Greenland. This will be a variable temperature pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. extending into western portions of the central U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. This will be a mild pattern for much of the central U.S. during the period as the trough sets up far enough to the east to limit any cold air penetration into the central U.S. Little rainfall is expected in the central U.S. during the 6-10 day period as the trough sets up far enough to the east to keep moisture out of the region.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10.The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...101 AT PALM SPRINGS CA AND OCOTILLO WELLS CA LOW TUE...13 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...JACKSONVILLE FL 1.67 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period today. A short wave trough is expected to drop southward over the Midwest region early in the outlook period. This likely means cooler temperatures but coming from well above normal now it may only bring readings down to slightly above normal before it lifts out again. A secondary trough towards the end of the period may favor northern areas of the western Midwest and the Great Lakes region. Rainfall associated with these troughs and accompanying surface cold fronts will occur mostly in the eastern US.

The mean maps today feature a strong trough over western Alaska and the Aleutians, a ridge over the western US and a second trough stretching from north-central Canada through the Great Lakes region and the eastern US. We also note some tendency for ridging from the northern Atlantic into the Greenland area. This high latitude ridge will need to be watched as it could turn the pattern colder over the Great Lakes areas and the northeast US region if it were to hang around for awhile.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Conditions for the harvest are likely to continue to improve during the next 7 days as any shower activity is mostly light to locally moderate and occurs mainly in south and east areas.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Mostly favorable conditions and weather for planting winter wheat and harvesting summer crops at this time.

Showers at the end of this week or during the weekend may slow planting progress in east and south-central locations for a time. Soil moisture and temperatures will mostly favor development.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/PEANUTS/WHEAT): No significant concerns for seasonal fieldwork at this time. Harvesting of soybeans, cotton and peanuts and planting of winter wheat should continue with little delay.

SOUTHEAST (ALABAMA, GEORGIA): Drier weather for another 3-5 days will help to improve conditions for seasonal fieldwork after prior heavy rainfall. Cotton, Peanuts and soybean harvests and winter wheat planting should improve with time. Rains may increase again in the region after this time frame.

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS/LIVESTOCK): Mostly favorable conditions for delayed harvests at this time.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Temperatures averaging near to mostly above normal and rainfall averaging mostly below normal should favor the mature crop and harvesting during the next 10 days.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS, CORN): Hot, dry weather in central Brazil depletes soil moisture slowing soybean planting and increasing stress to any developing crop.

Some replanting may be necessary. This situation bears close watching.

Increasing rain activity in southern Brazil will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops while likely delaying seasonal fieldwork.

ARGENTINA: Adequate to surplus soil moisture for corn and sunflower planting in central Argentina. Corn and sunflower planting is underway, slowed in some areas by wet fields and periodic rainfall.

AUSTRALIA: Recent and forecasted rainfall through east-central Australia will favor germination and early development of sorghum and cotton but may also slow planting progress somewhat. Rain is too late to help winter wheat and may be unfavorable for the maturing crop and harvesting.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA: Significant rain and thundershowers occurred in Moldova, South Ukraine and central Ukraine early last week. This will improve prospects for planting winter grains following a very dry summer and early fall period.

Significant shower activity reached the south Russia area this past weekend.

This helps improve conditions for winter grains but more rain will be needed following an extended last season dry and hot spell. Wet weather further to the west and north favors development of early planted winter wheat but slows planting for this crop and harvesting for summer crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today and Thursday. Dry or with only a few light showers developing late Friday or Friday night and favoring western areas. Temperatures average above to mostly well above normal during this period.

Light to locally moderate showers favoring eastern and southern areas during Saturday. Mainly dry Sunday. Dry or with only a few very light showers Monday.

Temperatures average above to mostly well above normal.

East: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average above to mostly well above normal.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers developing in western areas Saturday. Light to locally moderate showers may occur Saturday night or during Sunday through southern Illinois and in southern Indiana to southern Ohio during Sunday or Sunday night. Only a few light showers elsewhere in the region during this period. Mostly Monday. Temperatures average well above to above normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to turn cooler during this period, especially through north and east areas. Rainfall near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged above normal west and north areas, near to below normal southeast.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Thursday. Dry or with only a few light or very light showers during Friday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

Light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier through east and south-central Kansas, central and east Oklahoma, north-central and east Texas during Saturday or Saturday night. Drier elsewhere in the region during this time. Showers may linger in the southeast early Sunday, drier later Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures turn cooler Saturday and Sunday but still averaging above to near normal, warmer again during Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal west, above to near normal east, during this period. Rainfall near to mostly below normal.

Brazil...Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias (Soybeans)

Summary: Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers during the past 24 hours. Temperatures above to well above normal. Highs yesterday mostly ranged

93 to 102F (34-39C).

Forecast: Dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers in southern MGDS Thursday and Friday. Temperatures above to much above normal during this period.

Scattered to widely scattered light to moderate showers favoring MGDS and western Mato Grosso during Saturday or Sunday. Scattered to widely scattered and mostly light showers favoring north and east Mato Grosso and Goias Sunday or Monday. Temperatures above to much above normal Saturday, somewhat cooler Sunday and Monday.

Brazil...Parana, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande Do Sul (Corn, Soybeans)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged above normal. Highs yesterday were mostly 84-95F (29-35C)...warmest in southwest Parana.

Forecast: Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers in RGDS occurring mainly late today or during tonight and early Thursday. Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier in Santa Catarina and southern Parana occurring mainly later Thursday or during Friday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers in northern Parana during this period. Temperatures average above normal today. The south and central areas turn cooler tomorrow and Friday. The north continues warm to hot into Friday.

Light to moderate showers and thundershowers Saturday. Showers may linger in Parana Sunday. Dry Monday. Temperatures turn cooler during this period, possibly much cooler.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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