Market Impact Weather

Drier Harvest Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A drier forecast for Midwest harvest, and no change in a low prospect for rain in central Brazil, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

DRIER MIDWEST FORECAST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a drier pattern to form during the next week to 10 days. This will offer better conditions for field and crop drying along with harvest progress. Harvest progress is around two weeks behind the five-year average in the western Midwest, and near the average pace in the eastern Midwest.

IMPROVING SOUTHERN PLAINS CONDITIONS

Recent Southern Plains rain provides favorable soil moisture for germination and early development of winter wheat. Rains have slowed planting progress, but conditions for planting should improve this week. Cold weather early this week will slow development of early planted wheat for a time.

MILD IN DELTA

The Delta has no significant concerns for seasonal fieldwork at this time. Harvesting of soybeans, cotton and peanuts and planting of winter wheat should continue with little delay.

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DRIER FOR SOUTHEAST

Southeastern U.S. crop areas have a drier trend through the rest of the week. This will offer better conditions for harvest after recent very heavy rainfall due to tropical weather system activity.

FAVORABLE NORTHERN PLAINS PATTERN

In the Northern Plains, mostly dry conditions and seasonal temperatures favor harvest.

MORE CENTRAL BRAZIL DRYNESS

Central Brazil has seen a turn to hot and dry conditions, which appear to be in place for the next week. This hotter and drier trend will reduce soil moisture again and increase the risk to recently planted soybeans. Meanwhile, heavy rain in southern Brazil areas will cause some delay in fieldwork.

FAVORABLE ARGENTINA FORECAST

Across Argentina, a dry forecast offers beneficial conditions for crop planting. The drier trend is welcome following heavy rain during September.

VARIABLE UKRAINE MOISTURE

Recent rainfall in western and central Ukraine is favorable for soil moisture for winter wheat. Southeastern Ukraine through southern Russia are notably drier and need precipitation for winter grains.

MIXED AUSTRALIA TREND

In Australia's major wheat areas, Western Australia has seen favorable rainfall with beneficial impact. South Australia and Victoria are drier with wheat yield likely to be reduced. New South Wales and Queensland face chronic dryness and are in urgent need of soaking rains to ward off significant yield loss.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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