DTN Closing Grain Comments

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

General Comments:

December corn was 1 1/4 cents higher at $3.49 1/2 with March 1 1/4 cent higher at $3.62 1/2. November soybeans finished 10 cents higher at $9.68 1/4 with January up 10 1/4 cents at $9.79. December Chicago wheat closed 1 1/4 cents lower at $4.40 3/4, December Kansas City dropped 1 3/4 cents to $4.34 1/4, and December Minneapolis gained 5 cents to close at $6.15. The U.S. dollar index was 0.47 higher at 93.95 while December 30-year T-bonds lost 8/32 to 152'10. December gold was $3.60 lower at $1,273.20 with December silver $0.026 higher and December copper up $0.0830. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 96 points to 22,758. November crude oil rallied $0.67 to $50.65. The November distillates (heating oil) contract was $0.0080 higher, November RBOB gasoline added $0.0291, and November natural gas gained $0.001.

Corn:

Corn spent most of Thursday's session trading higher, supported by spillover buying from soybeans. The most bullish news was the continued rain across parts of the U.S. Midwest, slowing harvest progress in areas and likely to continue over the coming weekend. On the bearish side, Informa Economics released its October crop estimates, incorporating FSA acreage numbers (since late August), and increasing its national average yield estimate to 170.5 bushel per acre. This brought its production estimate in at 14.182 billion bushels, only 2 million bushels off USDA's September estimate. The market seemed to pay little attention to Informa's latest numbers when first released.

Soybeans:

November soybeans extended its recent rally off a test of technical support at $9.54, posting a high of $9.71 Thursday. However, commercial buying was lacking over the course of the session allowing the contract, the market in general, to fall back form the day's highs at the close. Weekly export shipment data showed China imported 20.1 mb of U.S. soybeans the week ending Thursday, Sept. 28, down from the 24.7 mb reported the previous week. In its October set of estimates, Informa Economics pegged U.S. soybean production at 4.474 bb, up 4 mb from its previous estimate and 43 mb above USDA's September figure. Much of this came from increasing national average yield to 50 bpa. Thursday's solid close could lead to follow-through buying early in the overnight session.

Wheat:

Winter wheat contracts traded both sides of unchanged Thursday, finding little spillover enthusiasm from a stronger Minneapolis spring wheat market. Commercial selling was once again the key in winter wheat, with carry in both Chicago and Kansas City forward curves firming at the close. Weekly export shipments (for the week ending Thursday, September 28) of 26.3 mb increased total marketing year shipments to 345 mb and puts all wheat on pace for total demand of 932 mb. Given the weak close, look for light follow-through selling early in the overnight session.

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Follow Darin Newsom on Twitter @DarinNewsom

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