DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Lean Hog Futures Pull Back Prior to H&P Release

John Harrington
By  John Harrington , DTN Livestock Analyst
(DTN file photo)


Light-to-moderate cash cattle business surfaced in Kansas and Texas with live sales marked at $108, steady with last week’s weighted average. On the other hand, limited activity in the North involved a few scattered dressed deals at $172, $1-$2 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.03 lower ($43-$48.50, weighted average $47.44). Corn futures drifted 1-2 cents lower on the close tied to lackluster positioning ahead of Friday's Sept. 1 Stocks Report. The stock market closed higher with the Dow up 40 points and the Nasdaq near unchanged.


Waiting for a definitive cash market verdict, live contracts closed cautiously mixed, up 40 points to off 25. Large charts gaps created on Monday remain tough overhead resistance. Indeed, bulls may need a large serving of encouraging cash fundamentals from some corner in order to cut through this technical ceiling. Beef cut-outs: mixed, up $1.11 (choice: $196.41) to off $0.80 (select: $189.11) with light-to-moderate demand and light offerings (49 loads of choice cuts, 32 loads of select cuts, 17 loads of trimmings, 30 loads of ground beef).


Steady to $2 higher. While cash business in the South could be essentially done for the week, Northern buyers and sellers must come to terms sometime on Friday. Look for light-to-moderate business to develop in the area Friday between late morning and midafternoon.


Feeder issues closed mixed in listless trade volume with prices settling up 45 to off 35. Nothing of technical significant occurred through the slow trading session. CME cash feeder index: 09/27: $152.08, off $0.35.


With the exception of a 15-point gain for spot August, lean hog futures closed significantly lower, off 35 to 137. Taking cover ahead of the quarterly snout count, Dec-April fell by triple digits, recoiling from overhead resistance near 40-day moving average. The H&P report turned out to be generally well anticipated: total hogs, 102%; kept for breeding, 101%; kept for marketing, 103%. Between a front-loaded weight breakdown of market hogs and only guarded increases in farrowing intentions, bear-spreading could be a popular reaction on Friday. Carcass value closed modestly lower as softer demand for loins, ribs, and processing items overshadowed strength in picnics and butts. Pork cut-out: $72.64, up $0.15. CME cash lean index for 09/26: $56.25, off $0.73 (DTN Projected lean index for 09/27: $55.54, off $0.71).


Steady to $1 lower. Opening bids in the morning should be steady/weak as packer complete procurement chore supplying yet another record large weekly rounds of laughter.

For more from John, see www.feelofthemarket.com


John Harrington