DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Lean Hog Futures Resume Early Fall Meltdown

John Harrington
By  John Harrington , DTN Livestock Analyst
(DTN file photo)


The distribution of new showlists was about the sole order in business in feedlot country Monday. Ready numbers appeared to be about unchanged in the South and mixed in the North. Overall, the offering looks about steady with last week. According to the closing report, the national hog base is .74 lower ($44.00-49.00, weighted average $47.775). The corn trade closed fractionally higher as the calendar edges toward serious combine work. The stock market settled lower with the Dow off 53 points and the Nasdaq down by 56.


Live futures gapped sharply lower on the opening and pretty much stayed there throughout the session. Monday's crash was caused by a combination of last month's larger-than-expected placement total, long liquidation and technical selling. Prices settled off 185 to 300. December close just below its 100-day moving average. Beef cut-outs: sharply higher, up $2.16 (select, $190.89) to $2.36 (choice, $193.96) with moderate to good demand and light offerings (45 loads of choice cuts, 14 loads of select cuts, 20 loads of trimmings, 7 loads of ground beef).


Steady to $2 higher. Bids and asking prices should remain hidden on Tuesday with significant trade volume probably delayed until Wednesday or Thursday at the earliest.


Feeders imploded along with their live counterparts, and for pretty much the same reasons. At the close, losses ranged from 292 to 450. On an estimated run of 6,800 (near unchanged with last week and somewhat larger than last year's 5,207 total), Oklahoma City sold feeder steers over 800 pounds steady to $4 higher. Conversely, feeder steers under 800 pounds were marked $4 to $8 lower. Feeder heifers over 700 pounds sold unevenly steady while sisters under 700 pounds were marked $3 to $5 lower. CME cash feeder index: 09/22: 152.60, up 1.16.


Lean hog futures finished on a mixed basis, up 80 to off 42. Generally speaking, nearby issues gained on deferreds, thanks primarily to the unwinding (i.e., profit-taking) of bear spreads. Yet nothing much happened here of technical significance. Carcass value closed higher thanks to better demand for butt, picnic, and belly cuts. Pork cut-out: 73.50, up .80. CME cash lean index for 09/21: 59.08, off 1.04 (DTN Projected lean index for 09/22: 57.66, off 1.42).


$1 lower. Look for hog buyers to open with lower bids in the morning, somewhat encouraged in that direction by Monday's large country run.

For more from John, see www.feelofthemarket.com


John Harrington