DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak trough over Alaska. A weak ridge over northwest Canada and a trough over northeast Canada and western Greenland. This is a mild pattern in western Canada, cool central, warm/hot in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the western Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the eastern pacific. A trough over the Rockies and a ridge over the eastern U.S. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the northeast U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days. Fair-poor agreement days 7-10. We are leaning more towards the intermediate run of the U.S. model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a series of weak ridges and troughs extending from Alaska across northern Canada and Greenland. This will be a variable temperature pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will tend to feature troughs on both coasts of the U.S. and some ridging in the central U.S. This will be a rather mild pattern for much of the central U.S. with limited rainfall. Favorable for maturing and harvesting crops.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal west, below normal east. The northern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall mostly below normal. The southern plains will see near to below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...99 AT LAREDO TX

LOW SUN...6 AT BODIE STATE PARK CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...NORTH PLATTE NE 3.04 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair-poor agreement. We are leaning more towards the intermediate run of the US model. The pattern will tend to feature troughs on both coasts of the US and some ridging in the central US. This will be a rather mild pattern for much of the central US with limited rainfall.

Favorable for maturing and harvesting crops.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: Hurricane Maria was located 350 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras NC. Maria is moving toward the north near 7 mph, and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday night.

Hurricane Lee is located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Generally favorable harvest conditions are expected during the next 7-10 days. Any shower activity will help recharge soil moisture. No damaging cold weather is expected.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Rains this week are very timely and beneficial to winter wheat planting and development.

DELTA AND SOUTHEAST US (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Favorable weather for maturing and harvesting crops during the next 7 days.

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS): Favorable weather for maturing corn and soybeans. Rainfall disrupts the early harvest but recharges soil moisture. No damaging cold weather is expected during the next 7 days.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Cool, wet weather this week is neutral to somewhat beneficial to developing cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES: No significant harvest concerns during the next 7 days.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS (Mato Grosso): Rain is needed to initiate soybean planting.

Scattered showers are expected to develop later in the week.

AUSTRALIA: Dry weather increases stress on developing wheat in northeast Australia. Production losses are expected. Little rainfall is expected in this region during the next 5 days.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier. Activity was confined to northern and western areas. Temperatures much above normal with highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s f.

East: Dry conditions. Temperatures much above normal with highs in the low to middle 90s f.

Forecast...

West: Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier Monday. Lingering light showers over southern and eastern areas Tuesday. Dry weather Wednesday-Saturday. Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Temperatures variable Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

East: Dry conditions or just a few light showers through Wednesday. Dry weather Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures above to much above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook... Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms over western areas. Dry conditions or just a few light showers in the east. Temperatures much above normal Friday, variable Saturday.

Forecast: Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next 7 days. Rainfall totals during the next three days will be moderate to heavy.

Temperatures variable Monday, below normal Tuesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Rainfall near to above normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Moderate to heavy rain in the east, light to moderate in the west.Temperatures variable Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday. No damaging cold was observed.

Forecast: Dry weather Monday. Chance of some light rain over eastern areas Tuesday. Dry weather Wednesday. Dry conditions or just a little light rain in the northeast Thursday. Dry weather Friday-Saturday. Scattered light showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, variable Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures above normal. Rainfall below normal.

Brazil...Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias (Soybeans)

Dry conditions. Temperatures above to much above normal with highs in the middle 90s to low 100s f.

Forecast...Dry conditions or just a few light showers through Wednesday.

Episodes of scattered light showers with locally heavier Thursday-Friday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Saturday. Mostly dry weather Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Mike Palmerino

(SK)

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