DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Nearby Lean Hog Futures Close Ugly Week With Significant Losses

John Harrington
By  John Harrington , DTN Livestock Analyst
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(DTN file photo)

GENERAL COMMENTS

Moderate trade volume developed in most areas of feedlot country Friday as producers responded to higher packer bids. Most live business in the South was marked at $108, $2 higher. Dressed deals in the North were primarily marked at $170, about $3.50 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Live business in parts of Nebraska and Iowa ranged from $108.50-$109.50, $2.50-$3.50 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. The national hog base closed off $0.15 compared with the Prior Day settlement ($43-$50.50, weighted average $48.70). From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Oct LC up $3.82; Dec LC up $4.60; Sep FC up $3.18; Oct FC up $5.45; Oct LH off $5.27; Dec LH off $1.85. Corn futures closed 3 cents higher with spillover support from the bean market. The stock market closed mixed with the Dow off 9 and the NASDAQ up 4.

LIVE CATTLE

Futures closed moderately to sharply higher, up 7-147. The board was well supported by news of greater packer spending for ready cattle. October and December was further supported by bull-spreading and technical-buying. Note that December closed near the top of the bearish gap created in late July. The Sept. 1 On Feed report turned out to be somewhat negative thanks to larger-than-expected placement activity in August: on feed up 4%; placed in August up 3%; and marketed in August up 6%. Beef cut-outs: steady to firm (choice, $191.60 up $0.09, select $188.73 up $0.32) on light-to-moderate demand and moderate offerings (61 loads of choice cuts, 19 loads of select cuts, 19 loads of trimmings, 26 loads of coarse grinds).

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MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:

Steady to $2 higher. Monday will be typically slow with packers focused on the assessment of new showlists. We look for the ready cattle offering to be about steady with this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Futures closed moderately higher up 22-67. Feeder issues were well supported by strength in the live market and decent commercial buying interest. CME cash feeder index: 09/21: $151.44, up $0.33.

LEAN HOGS:

Futures closed moderately to sharply lower, off 5-162. Late-week sellers particularly focused on October and December, driving them sharply lower thanks to assumptions regarding fourth-quarter supplies and inadequate demand. Note that spot October set a new contract low for the second consecutive session. This week's kill surged to 2,501,000 head, 69,000 greater than last week. Pork cut-out: $72.70 (FOB Plant) off $0.34. CME cash lean 09/20: $60.12, off $0.80 (DTN Projected lean index for 09/21: $59.08, off $1.04).

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL:

$1-$2 lower. Look for hog buyers to resume work on Monday with yet another set of lower bids, mindful of plentiful ready numbers and eroding product values.

John A. Harrington can be reached at john.harrington@dtn.com

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John Harrington

John Harrington
Connect with John: