DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1/4 cent in the December contract and up 1/4 cent in the July. Soybeans were up 3/4 cent in the November contract and up 1/4 cent in the July. Wheat closed up 2 3/4 cents in the December Chicago contract, up 1 1/2 cents in the December Kansas City and up 2 3/4 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is down 0.27 at 92.03. December gold is down $21.00 at $1,295.40 while December silver is down 31 cents and December copper is down $0.0335. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 43 at 22,333. November crude oil is down $0.16 at $50.53. November heating oil is up $0.0030 while November RBOB gasoline is down $0.0039 and November natural gas is down $0.138.

Corn:

December corn ended up a quarter-cent on light volume, staying within a narrow range in September and still holding above the August low of $3.44 1/4. Corn harvest is off to a slow start and USDA's quarterly Grain Stocks report is coming up on Sept. 29. With USDA already expecting a heavy 2.35 billion bushels of excess for 2016-17, prices are vulnerable to more selling after the report, but we are also near that time of year when seasonal lows are typically made. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 20.7 million bushels and 27.7 mb respectively, a bearish combination, which puts early shipments down 49% from a year ago as recent FOB corn prices continue to favor exports from South America. The 2017 corn crop is slow to mature, but so far, the seven-day forecast remains without significant freeze threat as does the Climate Prediction Center's early forecast for October. Technically, the trend remains down in December corn, but prices are showing signs of support and appear to be leveling out. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.06 Wednesday, priced 44 cents below the December contract and still up from its lowest price in nine months. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is down 0.27, but most commodities were also lower. December gold is down $21.00, falling back to its lowest prices in over three weeks.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 3/4 cent Thursday, staying close to its five-week high, but reluctant to break new highs, even while export sales have been active. After USDA announced Wednesday's 40 mb soybean sale, it said another 4.85 mb were sold Thursday to China for 2017-18, the ninth soybean sale announcement in 10 sessions. Earlier Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 85.9 mb and 34.7 mb respectively, an active, yet neutral start that has total shipments up 4% from a year ago in the second week of 2017-18. Thursday's weather map is mostly dry across the Midwest with chances for moderate to heavy rain amounts up and down the western Plains the next seven days. So far this week, November soybeans are staying just below their five-week high of $9.78 and traders may be reluctant to take prices higher until they see next Friday's report of quarterly soybean stocks. Otherwise, prices have enjoyed increased support from commercials this month with help from active exports. The trend in November soybeans remains up which is unusual in the face of what could be another record soybean harvest in 2017. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.00 Wednesday, priced 70 cents below the November contract and down from its highest close in six weeks.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat started the day lower, but ended up 2 3/4 cents, thanks to commercial buyers helping slowly lift prices out of the rut they found themselves in at the end of August. Thursday's close is a new five-week high, which will pressure noncommercial shorts and is technically bullish, but rather than charging off to higher prices, its seems more likely that wheat is likely to find a little better sideways range to trade in for the rest of 2017. The problem for higher wheat prices of course, is USDA's large ending wheat stocks estimate of 933 mb and record high world ending wheat stocks. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 11.3 mb and 15.7 mb respectively, a bearish combination for the week that still has total wheat shipments up 1 percentage point in 2017-18 from a year ago. The seven-day forecast is expecting heavy rain amounts in the southwestern U.S. Plains which will be generally favorable for winter wheat planting season, but maybe not in all local areas. Technically, the trend has turned higher in Chicago wheat, but from a fundamental perspective, it is difficult to see much upside potential at this time of year. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.06 Wednesday, priced 44 cents below the December contract and down from its highest price in a month. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.68, down from its highest price in a month.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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