DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over Alaska. A weak ridge over northwest and north-central Canada and a trough between northeast Canada and Greenland. This is a mild/cool pattern for western and central Canada, warm in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough in the western U.S. extending into south-central Canada. A ridge over the south-central and eastern U.S. and a trough off the east coast associated with a tropical system. The center of subtropical high pressure is over northeast Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 10 days. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a trough over Alaska. A ridge over northwest and north-central Canada and a trough over northeast Canada extending to the west coast of Greenland. This will be a warm/hot pattern in western Canada, mild/warm central, variable in the east.

The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the central and eastern U.S. The trough will be far enough to the east to limit rainfall in the northern Plains and Midwest. The main focus of rainfall during the period will be over parts of the southern US along the boundary zone between cooler air to the north associated with the trough and the warmer air to the south. Temperatures will not be as warm in the central U.S. under the trough as they are now. However no damaging cold is expected.

This pattern will feature above to much above normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal west, near to below normal east during the next 5 days, near to below normal west, below normal east days 6-10. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near below normal. The southern plains will see above to much above normal temperatures during the next 4 days, variable thereafter. Rainfall near to above normal. The Delta states will see above normal temperatures. Rainfall below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...103 AT LAREDO TX

LOW WED...22 AT BEAR LAKE ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...PORTLAND OR 1.36 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement today. The southern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over the western US and a trough in the east. The trough will be far enough to the east to limit rainfall in the northern Plains and Midwest. The main focus of rainfall during the period will be over parts of the southern US along the boundary zone between cooler air to the north and the warmer air to the south.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: Hurricane Maria was located 70 miles north of the Dominican Republic. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph. The eye of Hurricane Maria will continue to pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic today. Maria should then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane. Some strengthening is possible during the

next day or so.

Tropical Storm Jose was located 150 miles southeast of Nantucket MA. Jose is moving toward the east near 2 mph. Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southeast New England for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hrs. Jose is forecast to become post-tropical by Friday.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Favorable weather for maturing corn and soybeans. Some disruptions to any early harvest however rainfall recharges soil moisture. No damaging cold weather expected during the next 7 days.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Some beneficial rainfall for planting and emergence of winter wheat is expected during the next 7 days.

DELTA AND SOUTHEAST US (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Favorable weather for maturing and harvesting crops during the next 7 days.

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS): Favorable weather for maturing corn and soybeans. Rainfall disrupts the early harvest but recharges soil moisture. No damaging cold weather is expected during the next 7 days.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Favorable weather for the developing and maturing crop.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES: No significant harvest concerns during the next 7 days.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS (Mato Grosso): Rain is needed to initiate soybean planting in the northern Mato Grosso. Only a few light showers are expected during the next 7 days. Some rain may develop beyond the 7 day period.

AUSTRALIA: Dry weather increases stress on developing wheat in northeast Australia. Production losses are expected. Little rainfall is expected in this region during the next 5 days.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Scattered light showers in eastern Iowa with locally heavier.

Temperatures above to much above normal.

East: Dry conditions or just a few light showers with isolated heavier. Temperatures much above normal with highs in the middle 80s to middle 90s f.

Forecast...

West: Dry conditions or just a few light showers Thursday-Friday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the northwest Saturday-Sunday. Some moderate to heavy totals are expected. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday-Tuesday. Light to moderate amounts with locally heavier expected. Mostly dry weather Wednesday. Temperatures above to much above normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

East: Dry conditions or just a few light showers Thursday. Dry weather Friday-Sunday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to much above normal.

6 to 10 day outlook... Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal west, below normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures above to much above normal.

Forecast: Dry weather Thursday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers with isolated heavier Friday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday-Wednesday. Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Temperatures above to much above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, variable Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures starting out near to below normal warming to near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal north, near to above normal south.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Dry conditions or just a few light showers through Saturday. Scattered light showers with locally heavier Sunday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Monday-Tuesday. Dry weather Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, variable Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday, variable Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday. No damaging cold is expected.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Rainfall below normal.

Brazil...Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias (Soybeans)

Dry conditions. Temperatures above normal with highs of 95-104 f.

Forecast...

Dry weather through Sunday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Monday-Tuesday. Scattered light showers Wednesday. Temperatures above normal.

Mike Palmerino

(SK)

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