Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Mostly favorable conditions for the Midwest, rain for the Northern Plains, and some rain in the winter wheat belt, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for the Midwest to have mostly favorable conditions for filling, maturing and the early harvest of corn and soybeans. There is no damaging cold weather indicated during the next 10 days. In the six- to 10-day outlook, temperatures are expected to average above to near normal for the west, and above to well above normal east. Rainfall should average near to above normal west, and near to below normal east.

TROPICAL UPDATE

As of early this morning, the center of Tropical Storm Jose, with 70-mile-per-hour winds, was located 360 miles northeast of the southeast Bahamas. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 kilometers/hour). A gradual turn toward the north is expected later today and on Saturday. Sunday and Monday the system moves almost due north between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda. By Wednesday of next week, this system may threaten New England, but this is uncertain.

SOUTHEAST U.S. IMPROVING

The Southeast looks to see only a few light showers with locally heavier amounts during the next seven days, along with warmer weather. This should allow crops hit by rain and wind associated with Hurricane Irma to improve with time.

FLORIDA AG SLOWLY RECOVERING

Hurricane Irma generated strong wind gusts as well as very heavy to torrential rains this past weekend. This is likely to cause significant losses to unharvested citrus fruit, as well as sugarcane and vegetables. It may also mean damage to citrus trees in some locations.

MOSTLY WARM AND DRY IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, there are mostly favorable warm and dry conditions for fieldwork and planting of hard red winter wheat at this time. Soil moisture continues to diminish under this fair weather pattern, especially with well-above-normal temperatures. Rainfall will be needed to ensure favorable pre-winter development of wheat once it has been planted. There is some chance for needed rain to occur late in the period, but this is uncertain. In the six- to 10-day outlook, rainfall should average near to above normal through eastern and south-central locations, and near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

WARM CONDITIONS FOR WEST TEXAS

West Texas will see mostly favorable conditions for developing and maturing cotton at this time. A few scattered showers may occur in the area during the next seven days, but the risk for heavier rains appears to be low. Temperatures will be above normal during this period, and well above normal for another day or two.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR DELTA

Drier, warmer weather lasting at least the next seven days in the Delta region will help improve the condition of mature crops and improve conditions for the harvest.

COOL, RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, conditions are generally favorable for filling and maturing corn and soybeans at this time. Rain and thunderstorms and cooler weather during the last 24 hours, with more possible next week, will be unfavorable for maturing crops and will likely delay the harvest. Central Montana received from 0.25 inch to an inch of rain. The precipitation will help to restore soil moisture in some of the areas affected by drought.

MORE FAVORABLE CHINA PATTERN

Northern China will have mostly favorable conditions for late-filling corn and soybean at this time, although some areas could probably still use more rain.

INDIA RAINS

The forecast for India suggests an increase in showers and thunderstorms during the next three to five days over the southern portion of the north India region and the northern portion of the south India area. This area includes key cotton and soybean crops of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The rainfall may also move into key sugarcane areas of southern Maharashtra as well.

AUSTRALIA DRYNESS

In Australia, dryness is of much concern for wheat grown in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. Wheat in reproductive growth stages is likely being hurt at this time. Rain is needed to stabilize crop prospects for the area. There is no significant rainfall in sight for the driest areas of east-central Australia. Although longer-range charts for late next week indicate some showers may occur in southeast Queensland. Dryness is currently affecting wheat, but may also affect sorghum and cotton if the pattern continues.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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