DTN Early Word Grains
Fried-Day
December corn was 1 cent higher, November soybeans were 3 cents lower, and December Chicago (SRW) wheat was 1 cent lower.
CME Globex Recap:The grain and oilseed complex was slightly lower, or over easy, early Friday morning. Most markets, particularly soybeans, have seen solid rallies this week leading to the complex sliding back a bit overnight. Reports that North Korea fired another missile over Japan didn't jump start gold, as it along with the U.S. dollar index were both trading lower. The energy complex was higher, except for natural gas.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 45.30 points (0.2%) higher at 22,203.48, the NASDAQ Composite lost 31.10 points (0.5%) to 6,429.08, and the S&P 500 slipped 2.75 points (0.1%) to 2,495.62 Thursday. DJIA futures were 4 points higher early Friday morning. Asian markets closed mostly higher with Japan's Nikkei up 102.06 points (0.5%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 30.39 points (0.1%), and China's Shanghai Composite off 17.81 points (0.5%). European markets were trading lower with London's FTSE 100 down 74.61 points (1.0%), Germany's DAX off 9.48 points (0.1%), and France's CAC 40 down 6.72 points (0.1%). The euro gained 0.0022 to 1.1942 while the U.S. dollar index lost 0.16 to 91.89. December 30-year T-Bonds were 5/32 higher at 155'04 while December gold lost $1.80 to $1,327.50. Crude oil was $0.04 lower at $49.85 while Brent crude gained $0.03 to $55.50. China's Dalian soybean and Malaysian palm oil futures were both lower overnight.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | December corn remains in an uptrend on its daily and weekly charts. | 1) | The corn markets' major (long-term) trends remains sideways-to-down. |
| 2) | November soybeans' Wave 5 (of a 5-wave minor uptrend) could result in a test of $10.00. | 2) | Nov soybeans Wave 5 could be limited by continued commercial selling, indicated by a stronger carry in the November-to-January futures spread. |
| 3) | Though hard to believe, Dec Chicago wheat remains in a short-term uptrend | 3) | Wheat's long-term forward curve continues to reflect a bearish supply and demand situation. |
The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.
MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN December corn continues to consolidate, some would say hibernate, below its initial technical resistance level of $3.61 1/2. This price marks the 23.6% retracement level of the previous minor (short-term) downtrend from $4.17 1/4 through the low of $3.44 1/4. Fundamentally there is no reason for the market to get excited at this time, so it's not. Technically there is little buzz about the market, reflected in daily trade volume levels that continue to decrease (except for post-USDA report Tuesday). Given all that, Dec corn's daily chart resembles a sloth sleeping on a low lying limb, content not to move a muscle heading into the weekend. Delivery of 59 contracts was reported against the September issue, putting the total at 3,400 contracts.
SOYBEANS After trading above its previous high of $9.77 1/2 Thursday, November soybeans eased back a bit overnight into Friday morning. While the contract remains in a minor (short-term) 5-wave uptrend, daily stochastics (short-term momentum study) are indicating the contract is nearing an overbought situation. This could lead to light pressure on the market through the early stages of Friday's session, though Nov beans daily chart still suggests a higher high is coming. The short-term target area remains between $9.84 and $9.99. Deliver of 30 contracts was reported against the September issue, putting the total at 279 contracts.
WHEAT Winter wheat contracts were quietly lower early Friday. Where Thursday's session saw Kansas City lose ground to Chicago, overnight trade saw a bit more selling in the Chicago SRW market. Still, it could be argued that the Dec Chicago contract remains in a minor (short-term) uptrend, though the move has been unimpressive this week. Delivery of 1 contract was reported against the September Chicago issue, putting its total at 335 contracts. Delivery of 39 contracts were reported against the September Kansas City issue, putting its total at 1,250 contracts.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.10 | $0.03 | -$0.45 | Dec | $0.001 |
| Soybeans: | $9.09 | $0.15 | -$0.67 | Nov | -$0.007 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.00 | $0.01 | -$0.43 | Dec | $0.009 |
| HRW Wheat: | $3.61 | -$0.02 | -$0.81 | Dec | $0.007 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.82 | -$0.10 | -$0.51 | Dec | $0.009 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
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