DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...106 AT LAREDO TX AND DEL RIO TX LOW THU...33 AT CRESTED BUTTE CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...TAMPA FL 0.64 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement as it concerns placement of the mean features in the extended range outlook. The US model is stronger with the western trough and there are some differences on the details.

I am using a little more of today's European model as it concerns the strength of features and to resolve any difference on the details day to day.

The western trough will range from the northern Rockies and the northwest plains to the central Canadian Prairies during next Wednesday to Friday. The trough looks to be at its strongest during this time frame. The upper level ridge will be over the eastern Midwest and in southeast Canada during this time frame with the highest heights in southeast Canada. Hurricane or tropical storm Jose looks to be just off the northeast US coast with some chance for the system to loop back to the west during the period.

The northern plains, Canadian Prairies trough is expected to weaken during next weekend as it slowly shifts towards the upper Midwest. The upper level ridging also shifts east, off the east coast, during this time while a portion of the ridge remains over the lower Miss river valley. There are indications of a break in the ridge in the western Atlantic where what's left over of Jose could be located and what appears to be the next hurricane/tropical storm could be moving. These systems may threaten the east coast of the US at the weekend but details this far out are subject to significant day to day changes.

The mean maps at 8 to 10 days, Friday through Sunday of next week, show the trough over the Canadian Prairies, the Rockies and the western and northern plains with strong ridging over eastern Canada, the Great Lakes region and the northeast US. The weakness within the ridge field is shown just off the coast on the European model and from just south of New England to east of the Bahamas on the US model. The western trough is deeper on the US model while the east Canada and Great Lakes ridge is of similar strength on both models.

This remains a warmer or much warmer than normal pattern over the eastern US and likely as far west as the central or the western Midwest region. It should be much cooler west of the Rockies and somewhat more variable over the plains, especially the northern plains. Rainfall potential appears to be highest over the northern plains and the northwest Midwest east of a slowly progressive trough. There may also be some moisture coming from the Pacific west of Mexico into the Texas area but this is more uncertain. Also east coast rains will depend, mostly, on the track of Jose. At risk areas, of heavy rain, appear to be from Virginia northward to New England but this could change.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose, with 70 mph winds, was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 68.7 West or 360 miles northeast of the southeast Bahamas. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north is expected later today and on Saturday. Sunday and Monday the system moves almost due north between the US east coast and Bermuda. By Wednesday of next week this system may threaten New England but this is uncertain.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Mostly favorable conditions for filling, maturing and the early harvest of corn and soybeans. There is no damaging cold weather indicated during the next 10 days.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Mostly favorable conditions for fieldwork and planting at this time. Soil moisture continues to diminish under this fair weather pattern, especially with well above normal temperatures.

Rainfall will be needed to ensure favorable pre winter development of wheat once it has been planted.

DELTA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Drier, warmer weather lasting at least the next 7 days will help improve the condition of mature crops and improve conditions for the harvest.

SOUTHEAST US (COTTON,PEANUTS): The region looks to see only a few light showers with locally heavier during the next 7 days, along with warming temperatures.

This should allow crops hit by rain and wind associated with Irma to improve with time.

FLORIDA (CITRUS/SUGARCANE/VEGETABLES): Hurricane Irma generated strong wind gusts as well as very heavy to torrential rains this past weekend. This is likely to cause significant losses to unharvested citrus fruit as well as sugarcane and vegetable. It may also mean damage to citrus trees in some locations. This was a category 4 hurricane when it made landfall in southwest Florida Saturday.

CUBA (SUGARCANE): Hurricane Irma dropped south before turning north towards Florida. This brought heavy to torrential rains and powerful winds to Cuba.

This likely means severe flooding and extreme wind damage, impacting unharvested sugarcane.

MEXICO (COFFEE,CITRUS,SUGARCANE): Hurricane Katia moved inland over Veracruz, Mexico about as expected early in the weekend period. This area of Mexico produces coffee, citrus and sugarcane. These crops would be at risk of serious damage due to high winds and severe flooding and mudslides. Transport would also be impacted.

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for late filling corn and soybeans at this time. Rain and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures during 24 hours with more possible next week will be unfavorable for maturing crops and will likely delay the harvest.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Mostly favorable conditions for developing and maturing cotton at this time. A few scattered showers may occur in the area during the next 7 days but the risk for heavier rains appears to be low. Temperatures above normal during this period, well above for another day or two.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Mostly favorable conditions for late filling corn and soybean at this time, although some could probably still use more rain.

INDIAN MONSOON: The forecast suggests an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity during the next 3-5 days over the southern portion of the north India region and the northern portion of the south India area. This area includes key cotton and soybean crops of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The rainfall may also move into key sugarcane areas of southern Maharashtra as well.

AUSTRALIA: Dryness is of much concern for wheat grown in northern NSW and southern Queensland. Wheat in reproductive growth stages is likely being hurt at this time. Rain is needed to stabilize crop prospects for the area. There is no significant rainfall in sight for the driest areas of east-central Australia. Although longer range charts for late next week indicate some shower activity may occur in southeast Queensland. Dryness is currently impacting wheat but may also impact sorghum and cotton if the pattern continues.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Dry or with only a few passing sprinkles during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged well above normal. Highs yesterday mostly 86 to 92F.

East: Dry or with only very light showers in southeast areas yesterday.

Temperatures averaged above to well above normal, warmest western areas.

Forecast...

West: A few light showers with locally heavier favoring northern and west-central areas later today or more likely tonight. Light to locally moderate showers during Saturday with isolated heavier. Mainly dry during the daytime hours of Sunday. Showers may redevelop Sunday night, favoring southern areas. Temperatures average well above normal today, above to well above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Scattered showers favoring central and southern areas Monday. A few light showers Tuesday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers may redevelop during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

East: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Chance for a few light showers with locally heavier favoring northern and western areas Sunday. Temperatures average above to much above normal.

A few light showers with locally heavier, favoring western areas, Monday and Tuesday. Mainly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal west, above to well above normal east, during this period. Rainfall should average near to above normal west, near to below normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: A few light showers in southwest Nebraska during the past 24 hours. A little drizzle in the Texas Panhandle. Dry elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged well above normal yesterday. Highs mostly 93 to 100f yesterday, except northeast Colorado had highs near 90f.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier, favoring eastern areas, during Saturday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers favoring north and east Kansas and southeast Nebraska Sunday. Temperatures average well above normal today, above to well above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Light showers with locally heavier, favoring eastern areas, during Monday.

Mainly dry Tuesday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal west, above normal east, during this period. Rainfall should average near to above normal through eastern and south-central locations, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Moderate rain, 0.25-1.00 inch, occurred through central Montana during the past 24 hours. Light rain and showers through eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows, below normal west and northeast and above normal southeast for the afternoon highs.

Forecast: Moderate to heavy rain or showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Light rain or showers linger in the area Saturday. Drier Sunday.

Rainfall totals averaging 0.50-1.50 inches and locally heavier..except possibly less in portions of central and east South Dakota. Temperatures average below normal today and Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Dry or with only a few light showers Monday. Light to moderate showers with locally heavier favoring central and eastern areas Tuesday. Showers and possibly thundershowers through northeast areas Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday, near to below normal west and near to above normal east Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, near to above normal east, during this period. Precipitation should average near to above normal.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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